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Posted inStatistics

Hurricane Predictors Admit They Can’t Predict Hurricanes

My heart soared like a hawk1 after learning that Messieurs Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have admitted in print the hardest thing scientists can ever confess. That they were wrong.…
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Posted inStatistics

CARB Misinterprets Statistics, Calls For Elimination Of Dust

The California Air Resources Board, or CARB, has issued a press release that shows how easy it is to misunderstand statistics. That most do---fail to comprehend what statistical results are…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Are Moneylines Useful In Predicting NFL Games?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to know how good moneylines were at predicting wins and loses. Since Las Vegas is still in business, it was a good…
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Posted inStatistics

Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science

Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…
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Posted inStatistics

Geo-engineering The Climate: Durban Global Warming Conference

A group of scientists, funded generously by Big Green, which includes the Environmental Defense Fund, have released a report to coincide with the efforts of the Durban Global Warming Conference,…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Are Experts Better At Predicting Sports Than Ordinary Fans?

Today's post is over at the new and, yes, improved Edgehogs.com. Our launch was a couple of months ago. Since that time we've got a good chunk of games and…
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Posted inStatistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…
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  1. Willis Eschenbach on Caution Against The Precautionary Principle: Interview with Jaap HanekampJuly 23, 2026

    Thanks as always, Matt. I'd be interested in your (or anyone's) comments on my post below about the Precautionary Principle.…

  2. Steve on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 23, 2026

    Add a few more priors and the odds skyrocket. 7/11 knew about the July 11 thing -- it says right…

  3. Tars Tarkas on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 23, 2026

    If you can, can you do the example of the Hooker Chemical Love Canal allegedly random cancer cluster in children?…

  4. Tim on Caution Against The Precautionary Principle: Interview with Jaap HanekampJuly 23, 2026

    I enjoyed this discussion. I am very interested in hearing you gentlemen continue discussing nitrogen.

  5. John Pate on Caution Against The Precautionary Principle: Interview with Jaap HanekampJuly 22, 2026

    Considering "climate change" went out the window when the powers that be wanted more data centres I'm sure the Precautionary…

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