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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

The McShane and Wyner Gordie Howe Treatment Of Mann

Many---as in lots and lots---of folks wrote in and asked me to review the McShane and Wyner paper. Thanks! Gordie Howe---Mr Hockey to you---didn't need his stick, his hockey stick,…
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Posted inStatistics

Newcomb’s Paradox And Probability

This article was suggested by reader JH who saw it discussed at Massimo Pigliucci's site. When he was at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, William Newcomb devised the following puzzle, which…
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Posted inStatistics

The Gold Standard Of Experimentation Exposed As Pyrite

Everybody says the "gold standard" of experimentation, and especially clinical trials, is the randomized controlled trial. A typical view is that "A Randomized Controlled Trial is an experiment or study…
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Posted inStatistics

Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part II

Be sure to read yesterday's post first. One of the screwy consequences of classical statistics is that my odd sample (mixing babies and the patients from the brain cancer ward)…
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Posted inStatistics

Epidemiology, Causality, And P-Values: Part I

A standard epidemiological study goes like this: people who have been "exposed" to some thing, say, cell phone radiation, are examined to discover whether or not they have some malady.…
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Posted inStatistics

Manzi: What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know

This article is nothing but an extended link to a must-read piece in City Journal. Internet still once daily. Thanks to reader I. for suggesting this topic. If you haven't…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Everybody Has A Mental Disease: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual 5

I am so far Up North that I heard a radio interview with Uncle Ted Nugnet on the best kinds of arrowheads to bring down feral pigs. Internet still only…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Correlation and Causality: Have A Drink, Get Rich

I am down to one brief internet connection daily, found, intermittently, at a coffee shop in town. I apologize for lack of or slowness in answering questions. According to the…
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  1. Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 16, 2025

    John, I asked a THEORETICAL question. Pointing out that there are real-world options is MEANINGLESS to my question. How about…

  2. John Pate on Why Study Probability?November 16, 2025

    Eschenbach, card counting was arrived at by an empirically derived process. That's not the same as having bogus statistical theories…

  3. hudbwu on Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their PillowsNovember 16, 2025

    I like how it's implied nuking from orbit is a lesser strike than defunding. :)

  4. Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 16, 2025

    John, you say: "Try a different Aunt Sally, Eschenbach: an actual physical dice is an object that can be examined…

  5. John Pate on The Dysgenics Of IVFNovember 15, 2025

    The technocrats are unconcerned: they claim they can fix it all via gene editing, or maybe embryo selection, but anyway…

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