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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Are Tree Rings Low Pass Temperature Filters?

I don't know the answer to this question: I am not an expert in this area, and I haven't the time or resources to track down the data to discover…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Will The Religious Out-Breed Us All?

Thanks to long-time reader and contributer Ari Schwartz for bringing this to our attention. "It is widely agreed that religion has biological foundations---that belief in the supernatural, obedience to authority…
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Posted inStatistics

The Similarities Between Psychics And Global Warming Activists

The statistical evidence series will continue after the weekend. "I see the letter G." The woman closed her eyes, cocked her head, and looked inwardly. She became grave, tense. "There's...wait…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part III

To clarify: to prove false means to demonstrate a valid argument with a certain conclusion. If a theory/model says an event is merely unlikely---make it as unlikely as you like,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part II

I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part I

These next posts are in the way of being notes to myself. Logic is the study of the relation between statements. For example, if "All green men are irascible, and…
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Posted inStatistics

Job Wanted: Tall Statistician Seeks Match

I am hoping that among my faithful readers there is somebody that knows somebody who might know a guy who's looking for a statistician. The economy is such that consulting…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Scientific Concept Would Improve Everybody’s Cognitive Toolkit? Edge

Long-time reader Randy Brich reminds us all to head over to Edge.org and read the responses to the 2011 World Question given in the title. It will be worth your…
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  1. BDavi52 on Lindsay Clancy Strangled Her Kids Because Of “Climate Change”September 11, 2026

    No, no, no.... you're missing the point. Actually, you're missing the singular postulate which underlies every Woke piece of idiocy…

  2. Robin on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 11, 2026

    In my career I've rarely, if ever, used p-value analysis. Going through my university statistics textbook of some years ago,…

  3. Neil Jordan on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    How wee is the P for a coincidence? Separately, I will forward the short paper by William Feller, Scientific Research,…

  4. Briggs on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    Neil, Now, I promise this is true, but I also got an oil change this morning. P < ???

  5. Neil Jordan on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    Reply via iPhone while waiting for car oil change - Use for wee P? Yes there is one. Without wee…

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