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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell

David Blackwell, who died two weeks ago, was one of the first mainstream statisticians to "go Bayesian." And for that and his unique skill in clearly explaining difficult ideas, we…
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Posted inStatistics

How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics

See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…
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Posted inStatistics

US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?

All statistics were gathered from this DOD site. 2010 numbers were current as of 5 June this year; they were not part of the plots below. In 1983, the year…
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Posted inFun Statistics

World Cup Predictions Verified

All that was missing was the water for the players to plunge into. Still, referee Howard Webb must be a fan of the aquatic and artistic sport of diving, and…
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Posted inFun Statistics

The Predictive Skills of Octopii: Paul’s World Cup Prognostications

In Detroit, for that glorious game of soccer-on-ice-with-sticks, we---I still say "we"; you can never separate yourself from your birthplace---know what to do with octopuses, octopii as were: We toss…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Symmetry, Priors, Logical Probability, Infinities, and Needless Paradoxes

One reason why some reject the notions of logical probability and Bayesian statistics is because it is said that assignments of probability under symmetry generate paradoxes. However, as I will…
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Posted inStatistics

Lady Wins Fourth Lottery: What Are the Odds?

I'm in the wild blue yonder today; so here is a distraction. Thanks to reader Jade for suggesting the topic. Nobody can scratch better than Las Vegas resident Joan Ginther,…
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Posted inStatistics

Consensus Members Agree To Agree: Breaking Story

The agreement amongst climatologists who agree that mankind will cause devastating climate change is popularly known as "The Consensus." Those who agree with the consensus are part of the consensus;…
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  1. Briggs on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 28, 2026

    Erik, I think they did that hall walking scene just to show his magnificent head of hair wafting in the…

  2. Hunter Tison on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 27, 2026

    Morality is denigrated by modifiers. Immorality is the opposite of morality. Our current morality as a civilization is immoral.

  3. Erik Haaland on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 27, 2026

    When Lady Academic touches Briggs' papers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZirJkwu-2Q God bless, Briggs. https://cdn5.vedomosti.ru/image/2026/4d/ggqrd/original-lc8.webp

  4. N.S. Palmer on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 26, 2026

    The problem arises because we sense a conflict of duties. Reason demands that we base conclusions on the evidence. Morality…

  5. Cary D Cotterman on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 25, 2026

    Interesting, but he could have said everything he had to say in half as many words.

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