Statistics – Page 300 – William M. Briggs

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

Another probability "paradox", the two-envelope problem1, goes like this: Before you are two envelopes, A and B. One of them contains $X and the other $2X (which is equivalent to…

Statistics

St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell

David Blackwell, who died two weeks ago, was one of the first mainstream statisticians to "go Bayesian." And for that and his unique skill in clearly explaining difficult ideas, we…

Statistics

How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics

See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…

Statistics

US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?

All statistics were gathered from this DOD site. 2010 numbers were current as of 5 June this year; they were not part of the plots below. In 1983, the year…

Fun Statistics

World Cup Predictions Verified

All that was missing was the water for the players to plunge into. Still, referee Howard Webb must be a fan of the aquatic and artistic sport of diving, and…

Fun Statistics

The Predictive Skills of Octopii: Paul’s World Cup Prognostications

In Detroit, for that glorious game of soccer-on-ice-with-sticks, we---I still say "we"; you can never separate yourself from your birthplace---know what to do with octopuses, octopii as were: We toss…

Philosophy Statistics

Symmetry, Priors, Logical Probability, Infinities, and Needless Paradoxes

One reason why some reject the notions of logical probability and Bayesian statistics is because it is said that assignments of probability under symmetry generate paradoxes. However, as I will…

Statistics

Lady Wins Fourth Lottery: What Are the Odds?

I'm in the wild blue yonder today; so here is a distraction. Thanks to reader Jade for suggesting the topic. Nobody can scratch better than Las Vegas resident Joan Ginther,…

John Pate on University of California Prof Tries To Save System From DIEingJuly 15, 2026
I don't believe China to be hampered by such nonsense or, for that matter, much of S.E.A. in general.
Rudolph Harrier on My Horrible Interaction With AIJuly 15, 2026
I don't find LLMs to be particular bad at D&D in comparison to other things. For example, I queried an…
JohnK on Hume’s Guillotine, Euclid’s Catapult: Induction, Axioms, and Objective EthicsJuly 15, 2026
Does one detect the sea-captain's lurking circularity in this "we" who "need air, gravity, food..." etc.? And don't "we" also…
hudbwu on Hume’s Guillotine, Euclid’s Catapult: Induction, Axioms, and Objective EthicsJuly 15, 2026
Hume: "People saying things doesn't translate into rules for living." Stultes: "OMG I can do whatever I want!" If only…
hudbwu on My Horrible Interaction With AIJuly 14, 2026
@Rudolph Harrier: it's weird that you mention D&D in relation to LLMs. In my experience, nothing shows the utter impotence…