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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Gladwell, Gottman, and Abraham on Predicting Divorce

Despite the best efforts of their wives, some married men remain recalcitrant and uncooperative. They refuse to or are incapable of taking their training seriously. Some of these men, who…
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Posted inStatistics

“Humans are too stupid to prevent climate change” Lovelock

James Lovelock knows of what he speaks: personal experience allows him to say that a lot of humans aren't that bright. But Lovelock forgets that while there are many---half!---who are…
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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part II

Read Part I Cap & Trade & Tax & Spend is not dead. It was never even ailing. It's healthy and alert and standing in the corner, unnoticed. It has…
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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part I

Let's suppose everything you have heard about global warming is true. It really will warm by a half-degree Centigrade by 2050, or even by three-quarters of a degree, or whatever.…
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Posted inStatistics

Democrats’ Appalling Budget Wishcast

Update No extra charge for today's initially misspelled headline. It is a logical fallacy to say that it OK for John to lie, cheat and steal because Mary lied, cheated…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Obamacare Predictions: Part I

Here are some things I think will happen if Obamacare is passed. When I say "you" or "your", I mean "people on average." Obviously, some people will benefit. This is…
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Posted inStatistics

Randomized Trials Are Not Needed

I promised this article a long time ago: I hope these well known calculations are enough to give the gist. Randomized controlled trials are supposed to be the gold standard…
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