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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part II

Read Part I Cap & Trade & Tax & Spend is not dead. It was never even ailing. It's healthy and alert and standing in the corner, unnoticed. It has…
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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part I

Let's suppose everything you have heard about global warming is true. It really will warm by a half-degree Centigrade by 2050, or even by three-quarters of a degree, or whatever.…
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Posted inStatistics

Democrats’ Appalling Budget Wishcast

Update No extra charge for today's initially misspelled headline. It is a logical fallacy to say that it OK for John to lie, cheat and steal because Mary lied, cheated…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Obamacare Predictions: Part I

Here are some things I think will happen if Obamacare is passed. When I say "you" or "your", I mean "people on average." Obviously, some people will benefit. This is…
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Posted inStatistics

Randomized Trials Are Not Needed

I promised this article a long time ago: I hope these well known calculations are enough to give the gist. Randomized controlled trials are supposed to be the gold standard…
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Posted inStatistics

Final Healthcare Showdown: Government vs. Liberty

There's Nancy Pelosi, Six Gun of State strapped to her side, the sun burning overhead. And there's you, armed only with Freedom, thirty paces off. It's a standoff! If you…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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  1. JH on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 10, 2026

    Would Trump attack China or Russia? Why not? Bullying is wrong. War is wrong. [H]is specialty is obfuscation… lol. And…

  2. JH on Justice Ketanji RoarsApril 10, 2026

    Although I have not taught many Black students, I have observed that the most academically talented Black students perform at…

  3. JH on Proof!April 10, 2026

    Lincoln’s ”Fragments on Slavery” c. 1854 If A. can prove, however conclusively, that he may, of right, enslave B.—why may…

  4. Brendan P O'Sullivan on Class 85: Proper Scores of Model GoodnessApril 9, 2026

    Bill - An opportunity to help fellow Vets! Look at the following - regarding jet fuel exposure to vets -…

  5. Steve on Proof!April 9, 2026

    You don't need a publisher. It's just Godwin's Law in action. For whatever reason, that seals the deal for most…

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