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Probability Puzzle Paradox: Which Boxes To Take?
Posted inStatistics

Probability Puzzle Paradox: Which Boxes To Take?

We did Newcomb's Paradox (so called) years ago, and a twist in premises after that. But I thought it would be fun to revisit, because I had some new ideas…
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As Woke Falls, What Rises?
Posted inStatistics

As Woke Falls, What Rises?

In the heat of the Great Awokening, when it burned its brightest, many on the side of Reality tried their hand at defining woke. My own effort was a stubborn…
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Class 32: The Excesses & Errors Of Epidemiology I (All Should Read)
Posted inStatistics

Class 32: The Excesses & Errors Of Epidemiology I (All Should Read)

All can and should read this post! Not just those actively taking the Class. This is an introduction to Epidemiology, a science which has done tremendous damage to clear thinking.…
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Who’s Better at Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls?
Posted inStatistics

Who’s Better at Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls?

Keeping with Fadeback Fridays, which is soon to be an international success, this classic post, which originally ran on 23 December 2016. It's yet another in an endless supply of…
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How The Enlightenment Led To Contraception (And Other Forms of Anti-Natal Behavior)
Posted inStatistics

How The Enlightenment Led To Contraception (And Other Forms of Anti-Natal Behavior)

We continue our leisurely and in-depth study of the works of David Stove. We're still with his book On Enlightenment. This article is long, so if you're short of time,…
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Science Model Told To Say Masks Work Discovers Masks Work
Posted inStatistics

Science Model Told To Say Masks Work Discovers Masks Work

Ladies and gentlemen---and you, too, Hagfish---I present to you Science! In the form of the picture that heads today's post. This delightful children's drawing, presumably winning the Special Needs Science…
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In Which Feynman Makes A Mistake: Negative Probabilities (Used In AI, QM, Finance)
Posted inStatistics

In Which Feynman Makes A Mistake: Negative Probabilities (Used In AI, QM, Finance)

Richard Feynman wasn't the first to suggest negative probabilities. That recognition goes to Paul Dirac, who introduced them and negative energies at the same time---because he thought these things explained…
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Class 31: How Views Diverge With New Evidence
Posted inStatistics

Class 31: How Views Diverge With New Evidence

Is Trump a Russian Asset? (This question accounts for the change in banner image this week.) What happens to belief when people learn new evidence about this curious proposition? Theory…
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  1. Philip Rogan on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 29, 2026

    Effective Altruism is something else I've never hard of but apparently has been infecting academic circles for decades. I took…

  2. John M on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 29, 2026

    Thanks for reminding me of that classic Klingon joke!

  3. Rob Potter on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 29, 2026

    Asimov's robot stories are the best example that an artificial intelligence is not intelligence. They were a fabulous way for…

  4. John Pate on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 28, 2026

    We should all re-read our Ted Kaczynski materials. A man ahead of his time.

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on Irrational Rationalists: Effective Altruists & The Planet of the AntsSeptember 28, 2026

    While in university, I took a class called "Symbolic Logic". Logic was then taught through the Philosophy department, which was…

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