Statistics – Page 44 – William M. Briggs

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Statistics

How An AI-Machine Learning-Physics-Sociological-Whatever Model Can Be Good For One Man & Bad For Another

A model---which I do not distinguish between a theory---can be useful to one man and useless to the next. "But Briggs, people don't treat theories the same as models." Right:…

Statistics

Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online

Video Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLFDjRS_928 And here is Greg's talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6VMcIp21mA Transcript I followed this closely during the speech, but did not adhere to it perfectly. I don't have a…

Statistics

Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off

There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article "The Gambler Who Beat Roulette", and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose…

Statistics

Is AI Really Able To Probe Your Brain & See The Image You’re Thinking Of?

There's a rumor going around that computers can now read your thoughts. That "AI" can pick off images you're thinking about. Here's one of many similar breathless headlines: "The AI…

Book review Philosophy Statistics

The Multiverse Hides The Problem It Was Supposed To Solve, And Calls It Solved

Let's end the review of Sabine Hossenfelder's book. We did some already: Emergence, Entropy, and Many Worlds. With this post, we'll have covered the most interesting topics. Old Hoss, and…

Statistics

Broken Science Talks Now Online

Our first ever Broken Science event was in February, and the talks are now online. Watch them all here. These are all up late because the sound was busted, and,…

Statistics

Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis

Ellis sent me his paper "Modulation of Ice-ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks" in Geoscience Frontiers, and I found it rather intriguing. To greatly simplify: CO2 is good for you,…

spetzer86 on Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The ScienceAugust 7, 2025
I'm assuming they only asked pilots of fixed-wing aircraft and not those rotary-wing pilots flying in the Washington, DC area.
spetzer86 on Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1August 7, 2025
A person could still game your system by doing something complicated but not impossible. For example, repeatedly selecting one card…
hudbwu on New Definition Of Death To Increase Organ Harvest BountyAugust 7, 2025
> Today they take people who docs declare are in “irreversible coma” etc. and not “brain dead”. They are wheeled…
hudbwu on Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The ScienceAugust 7, 2025
A simple way to improve the study is to fire the subjects that don't fulfil some perfomance criterion. That would…
Lou on Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1August 7, 2025
Hello, Class 60: I am sticking with it, and its not at all too difficult. Please keep going at your…