Statistics – Page 55 – William M. Briggs

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…

Class Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…

Statistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…

Statistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…

Statistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…

Podcast Statistics

National Association of Scholars: Is Science Broken? (Make a guess!)

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Last week…

Statistics

Excess Deaths “Attributed To Heat And Cold”

The National Association of Scholars is hosting a webinar today, 3 PM EST: Is Science Broken? featuring Yours Truly. Free, but you have to register. Recall there is no such…

Statistics

Climate The Science Causes Blindness

The average daily temperature in Singapore is 88 degrees. Or, in barbarian units, 31. Every day of the year. Here's the headline: "Now scientists say climate change is making us…

McChuck on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026
It's not just you. SciFi and Fantasy died in the 1980's, and was buried under a mountain of dreck in…
NLR on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 11, 2026
"AI" will not come alive, but also, it has been over three years and none of the "AI" predictions have…
Johnno on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I'm panicking about the people who believe enthusiastically in the capabilities of the AI that the other people are panicking…
Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…
Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…