Statistics – Page 67 – William M. Briggs

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Statistics

How An AI-Machine Learning-Physics-Sociological-Whatever Model Can Be Good For One Man & Bad For Another

A model---which I do not distinguish between a theory---can be useful to one man and useless to the next. "But Briggs, people don't treat theories the same as models." Right:…

Statistics

Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online

Video Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLFDjRS_928 And here is Greg's talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6VMcIp21mA Transcript I followed this closely during the speech, but did not adhere to it perfectly. I don't have a…

Statistics

Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off

There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article "The Gambler Who Beat Roulette", and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose…

Statistics

Is AI Really Able To Probe Your Brain & See The Image You’re Thinking Of?

There's a rumor going around that computers can now read your thoughts. That "AI" can pick off images you're thinking about. Here's one of many similar breathless headlines: "The AI…

Book review Philosophy Statistics

The Multiverse Hides The Problem It Was Supposed To Solve, And Calls It Solved

Let's end the review of Sabine Hossenfelder's book. We did some already: Emergence, Entropy, and Many Worlds. With this post, we'll have covered the most interesting topics. Old Hoss, and…

Statistics

Broken Science Talks Now Online

Our first ever Broken Science event was in February, and the talks are now online. Watch them all here. These are all up late because the sound was busted, and,…

Statistics

Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis

Ellis sent me his paper "Modulation of Ice-ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks" in Geoscience Frontiers, and I found it rather intriguing. To greatly simplify: CO2 is good for you,…

C-Marie on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
The need for Jesus Christ, Who is the Way, Who is the Truth, Who is the Life, and Who is…
N.S. Palmer on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
The Academic Fallacy is what I called "the Existentialist Fallacy:" "Certain errors creep into most debates about social policy and…
Cary Cotterman on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
I never heard of this Arday buffoon until a couple of weeks ago. As I read through the account of…
Brian (bulaoren) on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
@ Uncle Mike Your comment reminds me that I really miss William F Buckley. He was often accused of dredging…
Uncle Mike on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
Five stars for the use of "rhodomontade"! I suspect nobody on the faculty at Cambridge knows the word, because they…