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On Cause In Probability Models
Posted inStatistics

On Cause In Probability Models

Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title "When Cause Is Not A Cause -- Another Anti-P-Value Argument". The post itself is extracted and modified from this…
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New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…
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That Cofnas Paper On Research On Group Differences In Intelligence
Posted inStatistics

That Cofnas Paper On Research On Group Differences In Intelligence

Find by general acclaim the smartest man in the world. Call this man "Group A". Call everybody else "Group B". There will necessarily be a group difference in mean intelligence,…
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Remarks On Pew’s Polarized Partisan Poll
Posted inStatistics

Remarks On Pew’s Polarized Partisan Poll

Pew has a large survey out with the title "In a Politically Polarized Era, Sharp Divides in Both Partisan Coalitions: Partisanship remains biggest factor in public's political values." I have…
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New Paper: Don’t Test, Decide — Updated: Now With Paper Link!
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Don’t Test, Decide — Updated: Now With Paper Link!

Paper link. By moi. Abstract: There is no reason to use traditional hypothesis testing. If one's goal is to assess past performance of a model, then a simple measure or…
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Reader Question On Sea Level Data Precision — Help Requested
Posted inStatistics

Reader Question On Sea Level Data Precision — Help Requested

From reader Kip Hansen comes a long but good (and slightly edited) question on sea level data. I can only answer part of it, because I have no expertise in…
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The Political Corruption Of Science — Grade Manipulation In STEM Edition
Posted inStatistics

The Political Corruption Of Science — Grade Manipulation In STEM Edition

Here are two recent examples, of many, with many more to come, of the pozzing of science by grade deflation. Meaning the lowering of standards as measured by grades. LADIES…
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The Political Corruption Of Science — Sex Assigned At Birth Edition
Posted inStatistics

The Political Corruption Of Science — Sex Assigned At Birth Edition

A peer-reviewed paper that caused a ripple in awareness before Christmas is worth investigating. Outlets ran headlines like this: "Trans children sense their gender identities at young ages, study suggests."…
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  1. spetzer86 on Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The ScienceAugust 7, 2025

    I'm assuming they only asked pilots of fixed-wing aircraft and not those rotary-wing pilots flying in the Washington, DC area.

  2. spetzer86 on Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1August 7, 2025

    A person could still game your system by doing something complicated but not impossible. For example, repeatedly selecting one card…

  3. hudbwu on New Definition Of Death To Increase Organ Harvest BountyAugust 7, 2025

    > Today they take people who docs declare are in “irreversible coma” etc. and not “brain dead”. They are wheeled…

  4. hudbwu on Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The ScienceAugust 7, 2025

    A simple way to improve the study is to fire the subjects that don't fulfil some perfomance criterion. That would…

  5. Lou on Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1August 7, 2025

    Hello, Class 60: I am sticking with it, and its not at all too difficult. Please keep going at your…

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