2014 – Page 31 – William M. Briggs

On UFOs, Salt Intake, And Heart Disease

Michael "State of Fear" Crichton once proposed that UFOs were responsible for global warming. Why not? After all, something caused that record amount of snow in Detroit yesterday. Don't get…

Culture Statistics

Government Per Capita Spending: Up, Up, And Away! Or, Happy Tax Day!

Here it is, folks. Right from WhiteHouse.gov. The amount of Federal Government spending per capita from 1901 to the present and projected out to 2019. Population projections were taken from…

Philosophy Statistics

The Hot Hand: Statistical Fluke Or Genuine Article?

I'll save you hunting through the text. It's a real thing. If you want to know why, read on. If not, you just tell 'em W.M. Briggs sez so, which…

Statistics

Truth: Logic of Probability and Statistics

Here, as promised, is rough, incomplete, outline-only, not-yet-finished, gist-only version of Chapter 1, Truth, for the book tentatively titled The Philosophy of Probability and Statistics (I'm also toying with The…

Philosophy Statistics

The Somebody-Might-Get-Hurt! Fallacy

Word is our beneficent government, which loves us and would not see us fall into harm, is working on a design for a system of chains to anchor both citizens…

Culture

How Teachers Learn To Identify Weapons From Non-Weapons

Yet another "educator" has confused the difference between a weapon and the fantasy of one. A 13-year-old boy from New Jersey was suspended from school for two days last week…

Culture

Lawyer Argues We Should Ignore Inconvenient Laws

Ilya Somin calls himself a lawyer, and he probably is one, too. Therefore what he says about the law must be right. Convinced by Somin's arguments, I will later this…

Culture

Science for the State; Or, Lysenko Lives

Jim Fedako (who wrote this piece; send him email) is a business analyst and homeschooling father of seven who lives in Lewis Center, OH. It sometimes seems that every regime…

Briggs on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Paul, You're right. It sucked. I'm redoing. JH, Very well. Construct for us a model that does not do what…
Paul murphy on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Ok, maybe I need more coffee but I found that very confusing - too much I think that you think…
JH on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
The mathematical result from the Di Finetti's 0-1 Representation Theorem discussed here tells us, under the assumption of exchangeability (which…
spudjr60 on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Well, it is a good thing, that I know beyond any doubt that all conspiracy theories are false. And, I…
hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025
I stopped midway to write this comment. What exactly is the difference between polygenic scores and two-layer neural networks? Other…