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Posted inClass Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That

Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a "sequence" is defined as a…
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Posted inStatistics

Middle Ground Between Precautionary Principle & Inaction

From reader (and listener!) Phil Pilkington (there asterisks are original): Hi Matt, Loved your speech. Hyperskeptical Economist that I am, M Taleb did us some great favours in outlining the…
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Posted inStatistics

DDP: Quack Cures For What Doesn’t Ail Us, Part II

I'm at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness meeting in No-History City, Louisiana. Here's Part II of (an earlier draft of) the speech I gave Saturday. Consider donating $1 for every…
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Posted inStatistics

DDP: Quack Cures For What Doesn’t Ail Us, Part I

I'm at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness meeting in No-History City, Louisiana. Here's Part I of (an earlier draft of) the speech I gave Saturday. Consider donating $1 for every…
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Posted inStatistics

Vatican Hosts Conference With Pantheistic Theme

Stream: Vatican Hosts Conference With Pantheistic Theme So the Vatican, under the auspices of its Pontifical Academy of Science, directed by Archbishop Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo, is hosting another global warming…
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Posted inBook review

Austin Ruse’s ‘Fake Science: Exposing the Left’s Skewed Statistics, Fuzzy Facts, and Dodgy Data’

Austin Ruse kindly sent me a copy of his new Fake Science: Exposing the Left's Skewed Statistics, Fuzzy Facts, and Dodgy Data, a book readers of this blog will take…
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Posted inStatistics

Bad Numbers, Bad Statistics

I am only about two years behind on my emails. Every email folks send me is worthy of a full post, but obviously I am so far behind I'll never…
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Posted inStatistics

Answering Ben Santer’s Trickle-Down Ignorance on Climate — Santer Responds Update!

Stream: Answering Ben Santer's Trickle-Down Ignorance on Climate Climatologist Ben Santer says living in the "darkness of the Trump administration's scientific ignorance" is like the time he nearly killed himself…
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  1. William Wallace on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 6, 2026

    I believe that the anger which creeps into conversations about whether or not AI can become sentiment has nothing to…

  2. NLR on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 5, 2026

    I agree with the paper test; like the Chinese room argument, it is a way to illustrate that a mechanical…

  3. Briggs on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 5, 2026

    Eric, Darn similar, and (I hope) simplified.

  4. Eric Brown on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 4, 2026

    Isn’t this Searle’s Chinese Room argument? Not that I disagree with either of you…

  5. Rhetocrates on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 4, 2026

    I disagree with the conclusion of the test. There is no need for panic or concern over the possibility of…

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