Posted inStatistics
Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem
The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance
Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong
My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…
Posted inFun Statistics
How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?
I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…
Posted inStatistics
Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking
This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…
Posted inCulture
Rioting Is An Ecstatic, Spiritual Experience: Or, Structural Sin Made Me Do It
"Rioting"---which is to say, looting, rampaging, vandalizing, engaging in wanton mayhem and violence, and generally acting very badly---"can be, literally, an ecstatic spiritual experience." So says the is-he Right Reverend…
A Depressing [Real Sad] Churchill Quotation—Contest
As I this morning scanned Facebook, I ran across the image below. Read it through and pause for a moment before continuing. Notice anything strange? I was so intrigued by…
Posted inStatistics
Does Averaging Incorrect Data Give A Result That Is Less Incorrect? Climate Modeling
Another question from the statistics mailbag: Dear Matt: I recently got into a discussion with a CAGW "believer" and of course the discussion turned to global average temperature (whatever that…