Search Results for “bayes bayesian” – Page 4

There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either

I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is "no prior". Bayesians might not agree, but it's true. Mayo's right.…

Statistics

Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?

Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email.…

Philosophy

Against Moldbug’s Reservationist Epistemology: Reason Alone Is Not Reasonable

For most, Mencius Moldbug will need no introduction; for those who do not know him, this review of his work is succinct (which Moldbug never was) and fair. We'll not…

Book review Statistics

Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts

This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we're 1.5 years out, it's time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again…

Statistics

Nature: “‘One-size-fits-all’ threshold for P values under fire.” Good. Shoot Them All Down

Nature magazine reports "'One-size-fits-all' threshold for P values under fire: Scientists hit back at a proposal to make it tougher to call findings statistically significant." Researchers are at odds over…

Class Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VI

Review! This class is neither frequentist nor Bayesian nor machine learning in theory. It is pure probability, and unlike any other class available. And for the right price! Last time…

Book review

Sean Carroll’s “The Big Picture” Reviewed: Why “Poetic Naturalism” is an Oxymoron — Guest Post by Bob Kurland

Another version of this article first appeared at Kurland's site. Scientism, the belief that science can explain everything about the world and ourselves, is a religion, although not formally expressed…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayesian Statistics Isn’t What You Think

Back to our Edge series. Sean Carroll says Bayes's Theorem should be better known. He outlines the theorem in the familiar updating-prior-belief formula. But, as this modified classic article shows,…

hudbwu on AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded OutputJuly 1, 2025
The wrinkle is in the (pseudo-)random number generator. In principle, the random number generator can be hijacked by a higher…
hudbwu on On The Probability Of GodJuly 1, 2025
I don't think omnibenevolence is part of the definition of God. Not only because, as you stated, there is nothing…
hudbwu on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJuly 1, 2025
> It is a characteristic of the breed—on average: we speak in generalities here—that in any argument women do not…
Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.
spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…