Search Results for “chance” – Page 101

Why Reconstructed Temperatures Via Proxies Are Misleading

This is an edited and expanded re-post from last September; it makes a natural and needed companion to last week's series on how to statistically handle temperature time series, particularly…

Statistics

What Are The Chances NASA’s Rogue Satellite Kills You?

Watch the skies! Identified flying objects released into space by NASA might fall on somebody's head, or at least land nearby a noggin, on Friday, 23 September 2011, at 12:43…

Philosophy Statistics

What’s The Difference Between A Confidence Interval And A Credible Interval? Update

Twitter @ceptional reminded me of this post, which I had forgotten. Since it is highly relevant to The Great Bayesian Switch, I decided to repost. Some minor errors in grammar…

Statistics

Statistical Results Associated With Increased Risk Of Exaggerating Risk

Our title, which is indistinguishable from a flood of others1, might read, "Reading Articles About The Misuse Of Statistics Increases Risk Of Apoplexy." Yes, for every article you read like…

Culture Philosophy Statistics

Are Humans As Violent As In The Good Old Days?

If we had records of massacres as we have meteorological records, don't you think we might discover their internal laws, after several centuries of observation? --- Joseph de Maistre. There…

Philosophy Statistics

Robert Heinlein And Evolving Probabilities

Writer Stephen Dawson, a long-time participant at this blog, wrote and asked the following: In his The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein had his intelligent computer calculate the…

Culture Statistics

British Judge Rules Against Bayes’s Theorem

A British judge has thrown a use of Bayes's rule out of his court. Not only that, his honor (Lordship?) ruled "against using similar statistical analysis in the courts in…

Philosophy Statistics

Legal Standards Of Proof And Probability

Different courts and legal systems use diverse phrases about evidentiary standards of proof1. Few to none are precise in the sense that they offer a fixed probability number for this…

NLR on Class 59: The Hardest Hypothesis In The WorldJuly 31, 2025
Presumably if the tea and milk are mixed up sufficiently she couldn't tell from the taste or texture. So I'm…
Gespenst on Class 59: The Hardest Hypothesis In The WorldJuly 31, 2025
Perhaps one can do no better than to say, "Miss Grundworthy was presented with n cups of tea with the…
polybius on The If I Were God Fallacy & EvolutionJuly 31, 2025
If I were God the word would not be as it is The world is as it is therefore I…
Briggs on The If I Were God Fallacy & EvolutionJuly 31, 2025
Steve, Not only do I admit it, I insist on it, and say so above. Cathoics/Orthodox are largely educated in…
Steve on The If I Were God Fallacy & EvolutionJuly 30, 2025
@Briggs, "Many say various oaths and whatnot, but looking at their behavior it’s clear most have no idea what these…