This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

Here, in two sentences, is the Dilemma of Technology: Fritz Haber earned the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 1918 for his invention of the Haber-Bosch process which synthesized ammonia from…

Independence implies causality; irrelevance is consistent with logic. A reminder that there is no such thing as unconditional probability. WARNING for those reading the email version! The text below might…

Briggs note: The point Jaap makes that measurability does not equate to toxicity, i.e. causal, needs emphasizing. It's related to how you go to the doctor and some measure is,…

The peer-reviewed paper is "Is pregnancy a disease? A normative approach" by Ann Smajdor and Joona Räsänen in BMJ's Journal of Medical Ethics. (Incidentally, for new readers, I always emphasize…

The scientist stood before them.He announced his result with glee.It sounds impossible?Can you say it's not bull?It's true 'cause my P is wee! Until classical statistics, with its focus on…

Here is how the political magazine Nature opened its article "25 million deaths: what could happen if the US ends global health funding: Models estimate the ginormous potential impact of…

I flatter myself that this is the best general thing I have written to explain why you must never, not ever, use a p-value, hypothesis test, "significance", Bayes value, or…