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Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake
Posted inClass Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
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On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking
Posted inStatistics

On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking

Thucydides in The Peloponnesian War speaks of Athenian prisoners dying from "variation in the temperature" in the conditions they were kept. Athens itself suffered deadly droughts at least in the…
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Disinterested Audits Of All Scientific Theories Must Be Mandatory & Routine
Posted inStatistics

Disinterested Audits Of All Scientific Theories Must Be Mandatory & Routine

This one picture proves why you must distrust every new boast from every scientist. Scientists' ideas must be assumed false until they are proven true by people other than themselves.…
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The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate
Posted inStatistics

The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate

Some things, the saying goes, are too good to check. Take the peer-reviewed paper "Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety" by Hannes Zacher and Cort W. Rudolph…
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Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online
Posted inStatistics

Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online

Video Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLFDjRS_928 And here is Greg's talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6VMcIp21mA Transcript I followed this closely during the speech, but did not adhere to it perfectly. I don't have a…
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Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis
Posted inStatistics

Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis

Ellis sent me his paper "Modulation of Ice-ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks" in Geoscience Frontiers, and I found it rather intriguing. To greatly simplify: CO2 is good for you,…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026

    As we read today's post on..."motherhood", a Massachusetts jury is determining the fate of a mother who killed her 3…

  2. Tars Tarkas on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026

    IMHO, they ignore the change causes change thing. Nothing ever changes in a vacuum. If we weren't importing millions of…

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    That x-axis could just as well be labelled "distance from equator" or "length of winter nights".

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