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The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate
Posted inStatistics

The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate

Some things, the saying goes, are too good to check. Take the peer-reviewed paper "Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety" by Hannes Zacher and Cort W. Rudolph…
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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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How The Expertocracy Builds Consensus & You Become A Denier
Posted inStatistics

How The Expertocracy Builds Consensus & You Become A Denier

I know the weaknesses of the terms Expert and expertocracy, and am willing to consider all alternatives. An Expert is a person with training and, more importantly, credentials, in an…
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I’m An Expert: I Must Be Right
Posted inPhilosophy

I’m An Expert: I Must Be Right

For the closing days of summer, I am posting every chapter of the first edition of Everything You Believe Is Wrong. My enemies ravaged the first edition, inserting typos galore…
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On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking
Posted inStatistics

On Breaking Climate Records — And Not Panicking

Thucydides in The Peloponnesian War speaks of Athenian prisoners dying from "variation in the temperature" in the conditions they were kept. Athens itself suffered deadly droughts at least in the…
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In Which We Answer The Pressing Question: Is Science Growing Stupider?
Posted inStatistics

In Which We Answer The Pressing Question: Is Science Growing Stupider?

I was asked this question the other day: "Is science becoming stupider?" I was forced to answer this way: "Boy, howdy! Science will be lucky to reach stupid the end…
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Climate Change & Gun Violence Research — A Mini-Play In One Act
Posted inCulture

Climate Change & Gun Violence Research — A Mini-Play In One Act

SCENE: A PRESTIGIOUS UNIVERSITY DRAMATIS PERSONAE: TWO AGING PRESTIGIOUS ACADEMICS "Hey, dude, we're, like scientists. Maybe we should, like, do some research." "Yeah, man. Do research." "Do research. We definitely…
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Why You Don’t Have To Worry About Climate Change: Multiplication Of Uncertainties
Posted inStatistics

Why You Don’t Have To Worry About Climate Change: Multiplication Of Uncertainties

I once did a talk on this subject at Spain's Royal Institute of Science during the first global warming panic, but I did a lousy job. Now, at the time…
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  1. Phil R on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    ...and I saw 5 or 25 in the figure. The division answer never occurred to me. Got all the rest…

  2. Phil R on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    If someone asks a question that is conditional on some evidence or rule that they conveniently (or purposely) leave out,…

  3. McChuck on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    The answer for the pictured question is obviously '1', as the slot already has a '1' in it, which has…

  4. Briggs on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    Mark, That's exactly it.

  5. Mark on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    Wittgenstein gave some examples like this in his Remarks on the Foundation of Mathematics, a book I had no business…

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