Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Announcement In the proud and rarely abused tradition of Honoring Important People, we present…

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Remember how I said, again and again---and again---that everybody gets statistics wrong? Here's proof…

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Time to tally. As has become our tradition, each New Year's Eve we see…