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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part III

Part I, II, III, IV, V. The objection which will occur to those, Lord help them, who have had some statistical training is that "increased" means a combination of "linear…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part II

Part I, II, III, IV, V. Before us are the observations X1 to X156. Recall we are assuming that each of these X has been measured without any error. Given…
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Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part I
Posted inStatistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part I

This series originally began 5 February 2012. Part I, II, III, IV, V. We've gone on and on about how to think about time series, but we are having trouble…
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Posted inStatistics

On Global Warming Apoplexy: Temperature Trends

It is a sure sign that Sanity has packed her bags and headed for the door when otherwise sober scientists begin slinging around terms like "denier" and "denialist." Language like…
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Posted inStatistics

Bad Astronomer Does Bad Statistics: That Wall Street Journal Editorial

Remember when I said how you shouldn't draw straight lines in time series and then speak of the line as if the line was the data itself? About how the…
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Posted inStatistics

EPA Can Fine You As Long As It Wants—With No Review

EPA Agent Stephen Segal protects the wetlands The EPA came to Idaho and said in a booming voice Stop! to Mike and Chantell Sackett, who were building a home on…
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Posted inFun

First Signs of Rampant Global Cooling Seen At Nome, Alaska?

The headline from the 12 January 2012 Nome Nugget ("Alaska's Oldest Newspaper!") strikes a chill into one's heart:       Nome in long deep freeze. The Nome post of the National…
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Posted inStatistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV

There is a technical distinction between a scenario and a prediction, though the line is fine and often disputable. Many scenarios are merely intolerably loose, and therefore useless, predictions. The…
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