Thanks to everybody from yesterday. I saw nothing that made me change my mind, so I'm publishing my analysis as is. There is this new caveat about the data a…

ET Jaynes in his must-have Probability Theory: The Logic of Science said, "It appears to be a quite general principle that, whenever there is a randomized way of doing something,…

UNCERTAINTY REQUIREMENTS If you say a calamity will befall me, and ask me to pay to protect against it, the burden is on you to (a) prove the calamity is…

Part The First: Observations How good is the Pfizer vex in practice? Ask them---or any Expert or ruler---and they will say...well, let's not ask them what they would say. It…

Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team colleagues scared the world silly in mid-March. They announced they ran a sophisticated epidemiological model which said Doom was on the…

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of…