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Update: That Silly Asylum Applications & Temperature Fluctuations Paper
Posted inStatistics

Update: That Silly Asylum Applications & Temperature Fluctuations Paper

Update at bottom. I was asked by Axel Bojanowski, Science Editor at Der Spiegel to examine the Science paper "Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations" by Anouch Missirian and Wolfram…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VI
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VI

Review! This class is neither frequentist nor Bayesian nor machine learning in theory. It is pure probability, and unlike any other class available. And for the right price! Last time…
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The Sixth and Best Way to Fix Statistics
Posted inStatistics

The Sixth and Best Way to Fix Statistics

Nature had Five ways to fix statistics, which asked a few folks, some of whom are our friends, how to shore up the sandy soil of statistics. Thanks to Al…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part III
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part III

You must review: Part I, II. Not reviewing is like coming to class late and saying "What did I miss?" Note the New & Improved title! Here are the main…
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Posted inStatistics

Manipulating the Alpha Level Cannot Cure Significance Testing — Update: Paper Finally Live!

A new paper has been submitted to a well known journal, "Manipulating the Alpha Level Cannot Cure Significance Testing: Comments on 'Redefine Statistical Significance'", by David Trafimow, Valentin Amrhein, Fernando…
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Posted inStatistics

Clever Statistical Method To Discover Fraud (Or Mistakes)

This is in the I-wish-I-had-thought-of-it category. A simple tool that suggests where fraud or major malfunctions in statistical research might exist. First, a description of the tool; second, a description…
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Posted inStatistics

Nature: “‘One-size-fits-all’ threshold for P values under fire.” Good. Shoot Them All Down

Nature magazine reports "'One-size-fits-all' threshold for P values under fire: Scientists hit back at a proposal to make it tougher to call findings statistically significant." Researchers are at odds over…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Induction & Intellection: Excerpt From Uncertainty

Induction is badly misunderstood. Here is an abridged and augmented excerpt (how's that!) from Uncertainty's Chapter 3. There is no knowledge more certain than that provided by induction. Without induction,…
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