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Posted inStatistics

Is Young Fatherhood Causally Related To Midlife Mortality? Wee P-values Say Yes!

The title of today's post is culled from the peer-reviewed paper "Is young fatherhood causally related to midlife mortality? A sibling fixed-effect study in Finland" by Elina Einiö and two…
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Posted inStatistics

Having A Kid Worse Than Divorce Or Death? Wee P-values Say Yes

When I first ascend to Emperor, after throwing into the dungeon any within earshot who cannot speak a full sentence without using 'like', my first act will be to create…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy

The Only Metric That Matters

I've been reading reviews of the the peevish Jerry Coyne's new book Faith Versus Fact (I don't have any money to give him to buy an actual copy). Recommended is…
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Posted inStatistics

Keeping It Simple: The Value Of An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. New Paper

The rebuttal to the criticism of our original peer-reviewed climate model paper "Why models run hot" has been published in Science Bulletin. It is also peer-reviewed, and therefore it must…
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Posted inPhilosophy

The Gaia Hypothesis Is Either Trivial And Useless Or False And Ridiculous

Hans Schellnhuber is an adviser to the Vatican's Pontifical Academy of Sciences. In the peer-reviewed Nature paper "Climbing the co-evolution ladder" (431, 913 (21 October 2004)) he and two co-authors…
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Posted inStatistics

Idols With Wee P Values. Statistics As Ritual

Or, rather, wee p-values are idolized. And it isn't just me saying so. Reader Dan Hughes points us to Gerd Gigerenzer and Julian Marewski's peer-reviewed paper "Surrogate Science: The Idol…
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Posted inStatistics

Are Wars And Violence Decreasing? Taleb’s New Paper Reviewed

The vale of tears I've been asked by several people to comment on Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb's paper (thankfully, not peer-reviewed, unless you count this) "On the tail…
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Posted inStatistics

Will Climate Change Kill One-Sixth Of All Species?

Today's headline was prompted by Mark Urban's peer-reviewed paper in Science "Accelerating extinction risk from climate change", which assures us that if we don't "do something", this is the end…
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  1. Robert Berger on Physics & Vertical Causation: The End of Quantum Reality by Wolfgang Smith ReviewedFebruary 1, 2026

    Thel Physics comments miss the entire metaphysical point ! (for the most part) We are now getting back to essence.…

  2. Robert Berger on Wolfgang Smith’s Vision Of Oneness — Guest Post by Ianto WattFebruary 1, 2026

    Whatever failures there are in the human writings and thought of Wolfgang Smith, he is the best mind on Physics…

  3. Paul Fischer on Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time SeriesJanuary 30, 2026

    Great lecture, William. Took a year of time series in grad school...all math, zero discussion of how fragile “trends” really…

  4. Martin on Fatima, Russia & You, Part IV — Guest Post by Ianto WattJanuary 30, 2026

    Brilliant. Thank you.

  5. spetzer86 on Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time SeriesJanuary 29, 2026

    You also need to consider the amount of trust in the data over time. If you have any reason to…

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