Posted inStatistics
Prettier Politicians Preferred At Polls
"It is well established that being beautiful confers many advantages on a person." This is the opening sentence of a break-through paper by two Swedes and a Finn. From that…
Posted inStatistics
Random Samples In Polls Not Needed; Other Common Poll Errors
Pajamas Media---my new pals--conducted, or rather commissioned, their own poll in the Scott Brown-Martha Coakley race. It found, after calling more, but reporting on 946 "likely" voters, Brown ahead by…
Posted inStatistics
Now only 32.8% of people believe the polls: Did New Hampshire let us down?
Last week we looked at how the polls did in Iowa. How badly did the polls in the New Hampshire race do in yesterday's Democrat primary? Here are the results:…
Posted inStatistics
Class 69: Why Parameters Don’t Exist
Questions Parameters don't exist because distributions don't exist, and distributions don't exist because probability doesn't exist. You cannot have "estimates" of "true" values when there are no values.. Video https://youtu.be/9nh7ngONLoI…
Posted inStatistics
Crime Issue Reveals the Real Source of Nation’s Political Divide — Guest Post by ST Karnick
Karnik is more in touch with "normies" than the author of this blog/Substack, and I thought it would be interesting to bring us that perspective. For instance, I look with…
Posted inStatistics
Reasons Not To Like Prediction Markets
Note: I wrote this on Saturday morning before the events of Sunday hilariously vindicated the conclusions below. My point was to illustrate how bets are not probabilities, though they do…
Posted inStatistics
The Verdict
I know I said no posts Friday, unless events. This was an event. I figured maybe folks wanted to discuss the matter. Here are my guesses. I hold them with…
Posted inClass
Class 5: Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science: Induction & Intellection
Link to all Classes. Video Links: YouTube Twitter Rumble Bitchute Next week we finally begin probability. Let there be joy! HOMEWORK: Read. I mean it. Read the chapter below. Lecture…
