Search Results for “prediction forecast” – Page 18

Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability

Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory.…

Fun

Winners Announced In The Rename “Global Warming” Contest!

On 17 July we started the Rename "Global Warming" Contest. This produced 66 entries, which is a record for contests here. Thanks to everybody who participated. I think we've done…

Statistics

On The Kaya Identity

A reader asked about my take on the Kaya wars that are flaming at Anthony Watts's place. Here is the form of the Kaya Identity, which is to say, the…

Fun

Rename “Global Warming” Contest

Andrew Jackson (â€@yodacomplex) reminded me of the screwy history of the thing that was Global Warming. The phrase has undergone many revisions, examples of which are: Climate Change, Climate Cataclysm,…

Statistics

Live From Heartland Climate Conference, Wrap Up

Profound thanks I cannot say enough about the generosity of my benefactor, who not only footed the bill for my trip, but wined and dined and rummed our Secret Society…

Culture Philosophy Statistics

Do You Believe In Global Warming Because Of The Seriousness Of The Charges?

An activist tells you, "Based on my theory of rampant, out-of-control global warming, otters, driven mad by the heat, will take to the streets and destroy mankind, just like apes…

Culture Philosophy

The Consensus Fallacy

Here is the word-for-word opening in the Vox "explanatory journalism" tidbit "John Oliver shows how to debate climate deniers": That climate change is occurring, and that humans are the primary…

Culture

Global Warming Update: Titanic Sunk! Contest Update: Other Historical Events. Update: Not Me!

Been a while since I looked out the climate window, because why? Because I figured there'd be nothing to see. After two decades of failed forecasts I assumed most modelers…

Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…
Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…
Uncle Mike on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI isn't the entity smoothing the data. The alleged decline in Arctic sea ice was a key assertion in Algore's…
JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026
The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…
JH on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI can be ‘gullible’ because it takes all the information fed into its optimization or backpropagation system. In many tasks,…