Search Results for “prediction forecast” – Page 2

Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…

Culture Fun

How’d We Do On Our 2019 Predictions?

A strong no prize this year. Nobody did well enough. Not enough specific predictions, or those that were specific did not come to pass. Doom predictions are too easy: they…

Fun

How’d We Do On Our 2018 Predictions?

How'd we do? Let me put it this way: the Magic 8 Ball is in no danger of losing its position as top soothsayer. We were game, but overall there…

Fun

Register Your Predictions For 2019!

As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Number…

Statistics

How’d We Do On Our 2017 Predictions?

How'd we do? Not so hot. We missed big events; but then, 2017 was a screwy year with our continued slide into Insanity & Doom accelerating. As Yogi Berra may…

Fun

Register Your Predictions For 2018

As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year later this week.…

Statistics

Reality-Based Climate Forecasting — Guest Post by Paul Driessen

Editor's note: since I am sick unto death of the weak anemic emaciated runtish political science of climatology, I refuse to write about it. I can point you to shenanigans…

Culture Fun Statistics

Predictions For 2017—Register Yours Today!

Once more unto the breach! We did well last year, but we had the advantage of a neat unambiguous set of predictions all could make, i.e. the United States primaries…

Richard on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 9, 2026
My son-in-law calls these "cosmic coincidences". We share with each other "interesting" or "unusual" ones we've each experienced. Of course,…
Brian (bulaoren) on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 9, 2026
Funny, I was just thinking about synchronicity...
Jennifer on Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time SeriesMarch 7, 2026
Ran across this and thought you could be interested: A Combat Scenario-Based Model for Quantifying Ethical Decision?Making in Military AI…
William Wallace on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 6, 2026
I believe that the anger which creeps into conversations about whether or not AI can become sentiment has nothing to…
NLR on The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In KindMarch 5, 2026
I agree with the paper test; like the Chinese room argument, it is a way to illustrate that a mechanical…