Posted inStatistics
Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?
It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…
Posted inCulture
Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded
Do you feel that chill? It's from a fell wind issuing from an Italian judge's courtroom, where he has just sent a group of seismologists and one politician to the…
Posted inStatistics
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV
There is a technical distinction between a scenario and a prediction, though the line is fine and often disputable. Many scenarios are merely intolerably loose, and therefore useless, predictions. The…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II
Thanks to DAV for reminding me of a clarification. See yesterday's comments. This post is mostly bookkeeping. Tomorrow we do more examples. Sometimes, in contracts as in predictions, certain "unexpected…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part I
I say that the Detroit Tigers, the baseball team---baseball being the most sublime of all sports, and this team being the game's most stalwart representative---will beat the Boston Red Sox…
Posted inFun Statistics
Only 2 days left! Predictions For 2012: Submit Yours Today!
Update Predictions are closed for this year. Come back New Year's Eve to see how we've done. We'll change the rules slightly this year and ask that everybody now predict…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
Predictions For 2011. How’d We do?
Last January 1st I asked for everybody to provide verifiable predictions for the year. Time for reckoning! Tomorrow I'll ask us to provide predictions for 2012, so hold off on…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Logical Probability And The IPCC’s Ambiguous Forecasts
This post is inspired by Roger Pielke, Jr., as well as Bernie, Matt, and other readers who asked me to have a look at some IPCC probability statements. Roger Pielke,…