Search Results for “prediction forecast” – Page 5

Mini-Coronavirus Update: The Blamestorm Is On Its Way: Fauci Walkback

Apologies to regular readers, but I got real busy the past few days. So just a mini-update on our model, which will be useful for making a couple of small…

Culture Fun

How’d We Do On Our 2019 Predictions?

A strong no prize this year. Nobody did well enough. Not enough specific predictions, or those that were specific did not come to pass. Doom predictions are too easy: they…

Statistics

Coronavirus Update XI — Robbing The Cemeteries To Pad Death Totals

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…

Philosophy Statistics

Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…

Fun

Register Your Predictions For 2019!

As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Number…

Culture

Corruption Of All Authority: An Interim Doom Report

"Any organization not explicitly right-wing sooner or later becomes left-wing." This is, as everybody knows, Conquest's Second Law. It is a true law, as all modern experience shows. But it…

Statistics

Everything Is Already In The Simulation

On Drudge a while back was linked the article "Pandemic 'could wipe out 900 million people,' experts warn" in some tabloid or sensationalistic rag (New York Times?). A chilling simulation…

Fun

Register Your Predictions For 2018

As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year later this week.…

Phil R on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025
...and I saw 5 or 25 in the figure. The division answer never occurred to me. Got all the rest…
Phil R on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025
If someone asks a question that is conditional on some evidence or rule that they conveniently (or purposely) leave out,…
McChuck on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025
The answer for the pictured question is obviously '1', as the slot already has a '1' in it, which has…
Briggs on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025
Mark, That's exactly it.
Mark on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025
Wittgenstein gave some examples like this in his Remarks on the Foundation of Mathematics, a book I had no business…