Posted inStatistics
Influential Forecasts
If I tell you that the price of a stock is going to increase and you believe me enough to rush out and buy that stock, the price of that…
Posted inStatistics
Company Stock And Bond Ratings: Skill and Influential Forecasts
If I tell you that it's not going to rain tomorrow, and it doesn't, then I have given you a successful forecast. If I repeat this success a few times,…
Posted inStatistics
New Tax To Force Citizens To Pay For Water: Prediction
Away back in March, I predicted that if Obamacare passed, we citizens would eventually foot the bill for homeopathic treatments. This evidence for this forecast was inductive, in two parts.…
Posted inFun Statistics
World Cup Predictions Verified
All that was missing was the water for the players to plunge into. Still, referee Howard Webb must be a fan of the aquatic and artistic sport of diving, and…
Posted inStatistics
Calculating the Uncertainty of Economic and Other Forecasts
I was asked to talk about how to handle uncertainty in forecasts. Below is a rough sketch. Many of you run or work with models that produce forecasts, guesses of…
Posted inStatistics
Seasonal Climate Forecasts Do Not Have Skill
David Lavers is the lead author in a GRL paper "A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications." Lavers et al. checked eight different climate models and…
Posted inStatistics
Climategate Predictions: The Aftermath
The aftermath isn't yet upon us. We are still in the in situ-math. But I thought it would be fun anyway to make some definite, testable predictions of what will…
Posted inStatistics
A safe, but misleading, prediction about global warming
Reuters's, on 3 January, had this headline, "2008 to be in top 10 warmest years say forecasters." A quote: 2008 will be slightly cooler than recent years globally but will…