Predictions For 2011: Submit Yours Today!

Calvin wonders about predictions


Since everybody remembers what Yogi Berra said about this hoary subject, we can skip it. Still, we can’t help but wonder with Calvin, where are all the rocket ships we were promised! Predicting the future is hard, but its inherent difficulty, nor poor ability of those engaging in the hobby, ever stopped anybody. We certainly won’t let it stop us.

This is our time to make guesses of what will happen over the next year. Be careful not to mix desire into your prognostications, for doing so will surely make you look foolish.

Examples of what I mean are provided by Fox News reporter Maxim Lott (a name which sounds suspiciously fictional), who gleaned the best of busted environmental forecasts, and then gave the opportunity to the predictive personages to explain themselves (thanks to Marc Morano for the link). Here’s a portion of the first:

1. Within a few years “children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” Snowfall will be “a very rare and exciting event.” Dr. David Viner, senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, interviewed by the UK Independent, March 20, 2000.

“Over the past decade, climate science has moved on considerably and there is now more understanding about the impact climate change will have on weather patterns in the coming years,” British Council spokesman Mark Herbert said [on Viner’s behalf]. “However, Dr Viner believes that his general predictions are still relevant.”

Wrong but “relevant.” How very nice. Lott also lists a few of the juiciest from fearless forecaster Paul “It’s The End Of The World And This Time I Mean It” Ehrlich, in which that gentleman was able to say of each—without lightning striking him dead—“See! I was right!”

In a way, Erlich’s, Viner’s, and the other gentlemen’s bald assertions of faultlessness in the face of adverse actuality is charming. You have to love a guy who is never right but sticks to his guns. He does so because his core beliefs—the theories and hypotheses that drive his predictions—are just too pretty to give up. He cherishes his theories, he pets them and speaks softly to them, he lavishes gifts on them and upon others who can appreciate the same beauty he sees—and he savages those who would call them ugly.

Now, if a theory is a true theory, predictions based upon it will be accurate, or nearly so. The problem is that true theories are not always beautiful; they are often mutts, and they are often unloved because of this. Thus, we often have a choice: embrace beauty or truth. We know what most opt for.

We shall aim for truth. Be as facetious as you like, but affix genuine predictions (if any) with the letter RP, for “real prediction.” No real predictions about personal status, please! No “forecasts” along the lines of, “After 2011, I will be one year older. Har har.”

To maintain as wide an interest as possible, let’s try to keep national or international in scope (this includes surmises about specific technology). If it is not otherwise obvious, provide directions for unambiguous verification of your predictions. We don’t want anybody hiding behind the excuses of the type, “That’s what I really meant.”

Once 2012 rolls around, and if I still draw breath and am able to edit this site (covering all bases, here), we’ll see how well we did. There will be no evading the ignominy of a failed prediction by calling it a “scenario” here. Limit yourself to events falling withing the calendar year of 2011. No official entries past one week (7 January).

I expect full participation, gang. Fire up those engines of infallibility and get forecasting! I’ll post my own predictions in the comments section with everybody else’s.


  1. DAV

    I’m guessing you don’t want things like Jan 7th will fall on a Friday this year. Soooo….

    1) GW initiatives in congress will die a quiet death
    2) someone will prove the hard way that full body scanners and gropy-feely searches are futile
    3) TBD — I have a hangover

    Love the Calvin strip but some would argue you are a year late. Yes, numbering starts at 1 but trying to get people from including the zero years in the following decade is as effective as stopping them from using “ain’t” or getting them to avoid preposition stranding and split infinitives.

    Happy New Year

  2. DAV

    Oh, yeah! I forgot! Friday 13th falls on a Thursday this month.

  3. Speed

    Re: Erlich et al
    Admit nothing. Deny Everything. Demand proof. And if those don’t work, employ the reality distortion field.

  4. GaryP

    Government union bosses will not tolerate any discussion of reduction in pensions and retirement benefits. Confrontations will get more ugly. Cities will not be allowed to declare bankruptcy.

    … oh um, you mean predictions for the future.

    Okay, In 2011 some city and state pension checks will bounce. Glen Beck will make lots of money advertising for non-perishable emergency stocks of food as government pensioners start to buy them.

  5. Mark

    The 2011 flu season will be very bad.

  6. JH

    Mutts are beautiful and lovable! >.< I know…because I have them at home.

  7. John M

    All weather events will be “consistent with” global warming/climate change/climate disruption/climate chaos/global wierding.

  8. Scott B

    In 2011, Obama and the EPA will keep-up the full court press on Texas regarding granting licenses to operate (i.e., not doing enough to make Texas like California – manufacturing friendly). Obama and the dept of the interior will not allow new Gulf Oil drilling. The Chevy Volt will have “unexpectedly” disappointing sales, sales to gov’t fleets notwithstanding.

    Readers of this blog will continue to have their minds expanded via witty and insightful commentary.

    OK the last one is a stretch…Happy New Year anyway!

  9. Ray
  10. Kevin B

    The second portion of the double dip will be a doozy.

    In the US, the left will blame the ‘tax cuts for the rich’ and the lack of more stimulus spending and QE3, whilst the right will blame the lack of spending cuts and the insufficency of the existing tax cuts.

    In Europe, the left will blame the spending cuts and the right will blame the tax increases.

    Everyone, everywhere will blame the evil bankers, (and probably George Bush).

    No one will discover the true causes.

    In other news, the lizards will finally reveal themselves and take over the wreckage of the world. I for one, will welcome our new lizard overlords.

  11. jorgekafkazar

    1. Bush bashing will finally fall out of fashion. A resurgence of Nixon bashing will fill the gap.
    2. Stephen Colbert will go into retirement and be treated for depression.
    3. Dan Rather will be hired by a major news channel to host their evening show, “Eye on Nixon.”

  12. max

    pfft, “the lizards will finally reveal themselves and take over the wreckage of the world”. No way, the logistics alone prevent this. No, the lizards have been planning the takeover for 20,000 years and aren’t going to change their schedule just to take advantage of temporary local conditions, it’s still going to happen in 2027, on July 17th.

    aah, my predictions:

    1) The Japanese government will fall in a major corruption scandal, which will not involve the PM but will encompass so much of his party that he will have to resign.

    2) N Korea will ‘test’ the DMZ in force (division level force) but not actually invade S Korea or take over the DMZ.

    3) Pakistan, the Prime Minister will not be killed. the same can not be said for the sub-prime ministers and several will die, usually accompanied by large explosions. Conspiracy theories about joint Israeli-Indian assassination teams, Russo-Indian assassination teams and CIA assassination teams will abound.

    4) Zimbabwe will experience a 3 month long, very bloody revolution. Unfortunately the government will win due to backing by mercenaries hired by a concealed foreign government. When the mercenaries are finally traced back to, never mind that doesn’t happen until 2014.

    5) Stoke will narrowly beat out Chelsea for the title (United having difficulty fielding a team due to a string of injuries and drunk driving offenses) beginning it’s 5 year dominance.

    6) A Canadian will fart and uncover the 2nd largest ever discovered supply of some natural resource or the other. Admittedly that’s not much of a prediction since Canadians have been doing this regularly for the past several decades, but the trend will not end in 2011.

    7) Democrats will regain 60 seats in the US senate due to a combination of mysterious resignations and suspicious accidents accompanied by gubernatorial maneuvering and controversial special elections. Without ever reporting on the controversy about the elections in the first place, weeks later the NY Times (without any reliable sources) will run a series about how the controversy was all drummed by Republican spin-meisters.

  13. Anne

    Greece, Ireland and/or California will declare bankruptcy, i.e. invalidate their debts.
    (Any one of the 3 will be counted as a success,
    all three will be considered “Ehrlichian Infallibility”)

    Note the gross economic product of the three: 325B, 149B, 1800B, respectively.

  14. John M

    Ray 3:19 pm

    Right under the passage highlighted by your search:

    Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will affect the earth’s temperature, leading to mass flooding or a new ice age

    …or something.

    Actually, since then, climate scientists have refined their models to the point that they can be much more definitive:

    Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will affect the earth’s temperature, leading to mass flooding, widespread droughts, warm winters except when they’re cold, rampaging poison ivy, and a general state of queasiness

  15. Tony Hansen

    the 17th is a Saturday.
    We don’t do Saturdays.

  16. 1. Enough “Republican” senators will wimp out and cross the aisle to support the administration’s agenda so as to thwart attempts by the 112th Congress to somehow reduce spending and lower the size of government. Before the end of the year it will be well-settled that the session will end up a virtual stalemate, frustrating most conservatives and many libertarians, but secretly pleasing a large number of the hold-over GOP incumbents.

    2. The RNC will jump the shark naming it’s next chairperson, with the result that before the end of the year a new politic party will be established based primarily on “tea party” ideals.

    3. Never mind, this segment flows from #1 and #2, but happens in 2012.

    4. TSA and DHS will finally combine to run out of luck this year and fail to prevent a US airline disaster, which will not officially be blamed on a Muslim terrorist. But “everybody” else will know who did it anyway, thus further establishing the incompetence of the chosen one’s spokes-idiots.

    5. Three more mega-sized print media outlets will go belly up this year and cease publication. Most of the remaining US newspapers will virtually ignore will ignore it when it happens, or will blame it on something else. No one will publicly mention they were caused by failure to report news in favor of expressing opinions.

    6. A significant number of well-known Democrats will publicly form a group similar to the “tea party” and begin the process of taking back control over their party. This activity will be virtually ignored by public media outlets, but the individuals will still be placed on the WH enemy’s list.

    7. A new inert, here-to-fore unknown gaseous mixture will be discovered [by NASA and East Anglia University “scientists”] to play a significant role in forming and controlling “the weather”. Before the end of the year those two entities will be given unlimited funds and authority to advise on and develop controls of the mixture, and the UN will be placed in charge of removing most of the substance from the atmosphere over North America and divvying that supply up with the needy nations of the world.

    8. The UAW and Ford Motor Company will settle on a new union contract before the end of the year, but for some unknown but justifiable reason Ford will be paying about 25% more in wages than either GM or what used to be called Chrysler.

    9. Out of frustration with her failing meme, before the first day of fall Gaia Girl will label WHB as being much worse than just a disgruntled troll on Global Warming Superheroes. The professor will blush with shame when this is publicized. [OK, that last won’t happen].


    RP For 3 of any 4 previously established definitions / metrics of “violence”; the incidence of such violence per capita in Mexico will exceed the same incidence per capita in Iraq.

  18. I hate it when someone on TV intercepts the ball whilst I’m supposed to be editing copy!

  19. bob

    1. By December 31, 2011 the US unemployment rate will be hovering around 8%. The Obama administration will try to implement a new way of calculating the number of unemployed, but Harry Reid will forget to bring the resulting bill to a vote, thereby earning himself the moniker, “the emptiest suit in Congress”.

    2. The US economy will grow at a rate of 2.5%.

    3. Carbon trading will become a regular feature of commodity quotes on the cable business broadcasts. The EPA will be successful in implementing the regulation of carbon dioxide emissions.

    4. The Tea Party will take up additional causes, with the most important being EPA regulations of carbon emissions. During violent protests over EPA regulations, several Georgia Tea Party members will be jailed because of their attempt to take Dr. James Hansen’s rectal temperature with an oversized Dr. Pepper home thermometer.

    These are my prognostications for the year 2011. They are not influenced by pharmaceutical substances or monetary conflicts of interest. Too bad I have cut out whiskey as a New Year’s resolution.

  20. pesadia

    1) Thorium (named after the god “Thor”) will become the element of choice for nuclear power.
    2) Climategate will be a bigger scandal than ever as a result of analysis of the so-called enquiries.
    3) The AGW debate will become more polarized as a result of legislation.
    4) Belgium will be in crisis by the end of 2011.
    5) Australia will have a political crisis in 2011.
    6) There will be a major scandal involving the IPCC.
    7) Tony Blair will fall from grace as a result of revelations connected to the Iraq war.

    These are my magnificent seven predictions.

  21. Steve Hempell


    Have not be around for a while, so didn’t see the post on Global Warming SuperHeroes.

    My prediction is – websites like GWSH, newcasts etc will continue to use hyperboloidal water cooling towers (with blackish-gray “smoke” in GWSH case) as a icons of CO2 “pollution”.


  22. max


    once again, it’s not going to be rescheduled and that’s it, it doesn’t matter who’s child is expected to be hatched on that day, or how many don’t have the blinding hangovers to make them more ferocious How foolish would you feel if the takeover happened on the morning of the16th and you had to use an empty gun because the ammunition for your unit is scheduled to be delivered on the night of the 16th? And we cannot forget the asteroid bombardment, do you have any idea how much hassle it would be to change the timing of the asteroid bombardment? Too much effort has gone into setting the schedule for the 17th of July, and if anyone had a problem with the date, they should have said something before it was finalized 180 years ago.

  23. Bob Koss

    The Chicago Cubs will not win the 2011 World Series.

  24. AusieDan

    pesadia re your No. 7.
    My prediction is that Australia will have a major political crisis in 2010.

  25. el gordo

    Back to back La Nina is on the cards, like the mid-1950s.

  26. John Morris

    1. With the Republicans in control of the House to take the blame while being unable to actually do anything to prevent it, Obama will use his Executive powers to ensure a double dip. Not that he needs to do much, he probably couldn’t stop it at this point if he actually wanted to. Unemployment on Dec 31, 2011 will be 10% +/1 1%.

    2. The media will have the Republican POTUS nominee predestined by the end of this year. If Palin runs she gets it, if not some other useless unelectable candidate.. If it is Palin the Tea Party will likely (75% probability) fall for it. 50% chance they fall for Huck. Anyone else I predict 75% chance of a major 3rd party Tea Party run. Predicting on into ’12, 3rd party of course means an Obama reelect but also the end of the Republican Party.

    3. Colder than normal winter causes final death of Global Warming amongst the myriad scandals. We will see the first hints of the replacement by Dec 31. The progs aren’t likely to give up on world domination by way of green scare tactics without at least one replay. Gore admitting Ethanol was a scam will be seen as the final nail in GW’s coffin.

    4. Birthers make a push in several states to make a birth cert a ballot access requirement. While being widely denounced as racists one attempt will succeed. Hilarity ensues. In the end (early ’12) no birth cert will be presented but courts will force name on ballot anyway.

    5. Hillary Clinton does not mount a primary challenge. Nobody does in ’11 or ’12.

    6. CNN & CNNH merge into one channel due to ratings to low for cable operators to justify letting them have what, on most systems, are two plum slots. While keeping it all deniable for fear of the regime’s increasingly fascist regulation of communications (Chavez is their model) MSNBC will be under increasing pressure to deliver viewers outside their target demo in the NY-DC corridor.

    7. Europe is toast. While the final kaboom probably won’t happen in ’11, by Dec 31 few will doubt that it has become a matter of when and how instead of asking if the EU disbands. Increasing signs of what Russia is drives out all outside corporate money for fear of it being seized. So forget Russia.

    8. China will be riding high by Dec 31 but is unsustainable longer term. The signs are everywhere for those who will see.

    9. The US is boned but nobody will be willing to admit it in ’11 so we too will be muddling through, some positive signs, a disaster or two but overall a wash. Giants fall slowly.

    10. The Tea Party is a real awakening but will be too small and too late. ’10 was the moment of truth for them and +63/+6 was impressive but not enough to truly frighten the old bulls in either party. This will be obvious to enough by Dec 31 to score this a win, but of course conservatives and libertarians will fight on even if the cause is apparently lost. (After all we have been waiting for the great uprising of the silent majority to throw the usurpers down since before Reagan… they are too busy watching Jersey Shore and waiting on their government check.)

    11. The terrorists’ luck can’t be crappy forever, especially when the administration is rooting for em, so they finally score against the idiots in DHS. Probably (75%) close enough to Sept 11 for the media to brand it the 10th Anniversary attack. Nothing world changing (WTC scale, WMD, etc) but a big win with a hundred or so kills or wrecking a notable landmark.

    12. Against all odds, Obama manages to screw the pooch in Iraq. In ’11 things will suddenly start to go bad. Major media will bury the story until after the elections in ’12. It might not fall totally apart until ’13 but for those paying attention to online media ’11 will mark a major reversal of fortune. History must not record Iraq as a victory for it would be forced to credit Bush. Obama will not wait for reelection to set in motion such a high priority goal.

    Ok, if I bat .500 on these I’m a fricking Oracle.

  27. Rick Bradford

    By the end of 2011, a lot more people will be ready to believe that we are in for a cold 30 years or so, maybe even a mini Ice Age.

    The AGW scientists will suddenly discover that that is what their models have been predicting all along, and that CO2 is still the culprit, along with other inevitable by-products of capitalist industry such as atmospheric particles SO2, NOx and so on.

    This will require more research funding, and more UN bodies to oversee wealth transfer to the Third World.

  28. dearieme

    2011 will be followed by a leap year caused by CO2.

  29. Izzy

    1) USA economy will not double-dip, but will remain in the doldrums. Democrats will claim it is showing improvement and their “stimuli” prevented a second great depression. Republicans will claim improvement is being prevented by the “stimuli” and more tax cuts would be the answer. The tea party will claim that we are already in deflation and only by throwing out the bums (both those that are still there and any new ones that are not faithful to the tea party message) can we save the USA.

    2) Violence will continue to escalate in Afganistan. The current administration will declare victory somehow and retreat. The main stream media (MSM) will support the victory declaration.

    3) Violence will begin to escalate in Iraq as a result of overflow from Afganistan. The MSM will cover it up.

    4) Red China will make more aggressive moves against Nationalist China. This will become a proxy war between Red China and the USA. There will be small skirmishes without a full war. This will become the new cold war.

    5) North Korea, seeing the USA being a paper tiger, will fully invade the islands that South Korea controls. The USA and the UN will get South Korea to make concessions. The MSM will fully support conceding to the Norks.

    6) The UN will become more ridiculous by passing human rights decrees that effectively make Islam unquestionable. The UN will attempt to pass decrees that criminalize personal gun ownership in all UN members.

    7) Due to few jobs, and increasing tensions, there will begin to be riots in the streets in the USA. They will escalate when the congress fails to provide even more welfare, and even threatens to cut back any services. The instigators will be the anarchists, but they will be joined by most other special interest groups (unions, communists, etc.)

  30. JH

    I know for certain that some good things are going to happen, and some bad things are going to happen. Good things! For example:

    A Popeye the Sailor movie will be made, and another Friday the 13th movie will be made just for DAV.

    A Star-Trek style video communication tool will be marketed to replace the existing home phone.

    A nano memory card for my digital camera will be available. No more photo transfers. No more sorry-out-of-memory moments. “It’s a Wonderful Life: A Memory Chip”. This would be nice.

    AND the DJIA will exceed 12,000.

    I guess they are more of wishes than predictions.

  31. Eric Dailey

    Many more people will study the Scripture.

  32. Amy G. Dala

    1. Large scale ocean heat loss will continue to cause deadly cold snaps in both hemispheres. The Soros/Gore cabal will nonetheless declare 2011 to be the warmist year in geologic history.

    2. The world economy will continue to plummet, driven down by shock waves of runaway inflation. China, a paper tiger, will not be able to save the U.S. from economic suicide.

    3. Armed revolutions will spring up in dozens of countries as the US military will become even more ineffective in policing the world. The US Army and Navy will send contingents to march in Gay Pride parades, however.

    4. Obama’s popularity will drop to its lowest levels in geologic history but that will not reduce his caviar consumption. Congress will hunker in its bunker to avoid a growing epidemic of brick-thru-limo-windshield events.

    5. The last English-speaking newscaster in America will be replaced by a veiled Farsi in the name of “diversity”.

    6. Christmas 2011 will be cancelled so as not to offend space aliens.

  33. John R T

    1. C. Figueres resigns from UNFCCC Exec. Secý. position: finally, UN COI regs.
    2. Costa Rica welcomes her home, with a position in Chinchilla administration.
    3. B. Obama promotes rapid approval of dozens of nuclear power plants.
    4. China, with reserves of $753 per capita, agrees with US: twists N. Korea arm.
    5. EU rejects Lisbon Treaty, and promotes EURO as ´back-up/contingency´ fund.
    6. F. Chang tests plasma propulsion, in space.
    7. VA AG Cuchinelli advances both news-worthy cases in court decisions.
    8. D. Ortega brings troops home, after losing bid for second term: Latin America rejoices.
    9. ObLaden buried in Iran, after death in shoot-out.
    10. Israel, Russia, Switzerland and Iceland announce battery of trans-national cyber-wrenches thrown into uranium enrichment facilities.

    My family is delivering one of your books, tonight, on AA flight 2141, ar SJO, 2200 hrs local: I REALLY hope this prediction is accurate.

    Thank you, Professor, and a prosperous 2011 to all.

  34. The largest issue of 2011 will be islamic jihad on the civilized western world. And the jihadists will to a very large extent have been born and bred in the country where terrorist actions take place. (And no-one suspected them to be radical.) It won’t be 9/11 again, but it will become much more intense than the last couple of years. Europe (including Russia) will be worst hit. Great Britain, France, Spain and Germany will cope best, since they are so used to domestic terrorism already. Sorry for not making a fun prediction. I actually believe this is what will happen.

  35. Craig from Belvidere

    US Supreme Court announces that statistical arguments will no longer be allowed as evidence in Federal Courts after joint Underwriters Laboratories and National Institute of Standards and Technology study shows that 94.739% of all statistics are made up.

    Oil tops $105 per barrel. Progressives call for legal definition of oil to be changed to 35 gallons per barrel to make oil “more affordable for the middle class.”

    Volt Electric Car given the Nobel Peace Prize.

    California bans vineyards from making wine in order to meet 2011 state targets for CO2 reduction (Grape + Yeast = Wine + CO2). Not to be outdone Mayor Bloomberg outlaws opening Champagne in New York City to eliminate second hand carbon dioxide “for the children”.

    Water powered cold fusion automobile engine invented but patents bought and buried by Big Oil.

    New regulations drive more employers from California reducing electricity demand by 10%. Electricity prices rise 20% to cover fixed costs of renewable energy production.

    Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska secede from the United States, form United States of Personal Responsibility and Common Sense.

  36. AndrewK

    There will be at least one announcement of a new clean energy source …. but it will require millions of $s in govt funding to get it up and running.

  37. Mike B

    House passes a bill to defund the EPA for their C02 regulations, but the bill dies in the Senate.

    Michelle Obama gets preggers, giving an instant 10 %-age point approval boost to Barry.

    Rulon Gardner wins Biggest Loser Couples. Seriously, whose idea was it to put a WRESTLER in a weight losing contest?

  38. Jerry

    1.) In 2011 global weather conditions will fall well within the normal range with some local high/low temperature and wet/dry precipitation records broken.

    2.) Climate Scientists will declare this is consistent with Climate Disruption models.

  39. Peregrine John

    1. Global cooling trend, combined with sporadic unusual warmth in places will cause frantic shift in Humans Are Evil crowd strategies. “Global weirding” will become a common catch-phrase.

    2. Europe and Asia enormously realign positions on Israel as it becomes a sudden player in energy. Reaction from mideast tyrants and Russian mobsters approaches blind panic.

    3. Ripple effects from libtardular organizations collapsing will cause nationwide trouble when unavoidable (California) and will be denied, Baghdad Bob-fashion, when any hope of covering it up can be had (Acorn descendants, U.S.-Mexico border clashes, etc.).

    4. Establishment Republican congresscritters will resist publicly mandated fiscal responsibility from incoming representatives and senators, and will completely beclown themselves in doing so. NYT will give the most favorable coverage in history to senior Republican legislators.

    5. Personal liberties will erode fast, bolstered by draconian and overreaching laws and the constant din of “save the poor!”

    6. Gold will top $2000, and it won’t take long.

    7. The U.S. economy will stagnate, and while real estate nationwide will average better than 2010, the bluest states will get kicked again, hard.

    8. The tea party movement will have minor stresses as its more foolish members try to incorporate causes irrelevant to its core drive. The press will play this up endlessly; smug libs will self-congratulate with the traditional “humorless bark” that passes for laughter; the movement itself will shrink slightly but keep the pressure on those who were sent. The giant doesn’t go back to sleep so easily.

  40. JJD

    All of these are RP:

    1. One or two solar/wind power megaprojects in California stall and die due to financing problems.

    2. California economy tanks and a high technology golden goose leaves or gets seriously ill.

    3. One or more incidents of serious anti-government political violence (assassination, abduction) in USA reminiscent of 1960’s. Nutters are blamed without serious investigation.

    4. Unless replaced by a more vivid pseudoscientific scare such as “Possible Spanish Flu Pandemic, No Really” or “Dying Oceans,” global warming/climage change/climate disruption will continue to be a major political hobby horse. By 2012 it will begin to be an “End of Interglacial” scare.

    May all your significance levels continue to be high during this new year, and may your posterior distributions continue to fit in your pants.

  41. obiwankenobi

    RP 1: Iran will collapse from internal green revolution.
    RP 2: N Korea will cheat on the agreements and continue dark U enrichment effort.
    RP 3: Iraqis will continue to prosper under freedom.
    RP 4: Additional democracies will be added to the world, see #1.
    RP 5: Yellowcake (Uranium Oxide) spot price will break $80/pound (currently $62/lb).
    RP 6: There will be a 10% increase in the number of new nuclear reactors under construction worldwide (currently there are 65 rxtrs under construction). At least one will be in the US.
    RP 7: One of the original leaders of the American Indian Movement will be charged in the 1975 murder of Anna Mae Pictou Aquash (as of 2010 two AIM members have been convicted of aiding and abetting her murder).
    RP 8: A clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination will be named by the MSM and she won’t even be running.
    RP 9: Lance Armstrong will not race in the Tour de France but he will race in the Leadville 100 and the Tour of Colorado/Quizno Pro Challenge.
    RP 10: A human will beat IBM computer at the Jeopardy/Computer Challenge in February.

  42. Mike D

    Mr Briggs,

    I much enjoyed your lyrical description of the mindset of those holding fast to theories and unwilling to face akward facts – a trait not of course confined to the AGW community. I do think it a pity though that you call for us to embrace either truth or beauty. I think I can only agree with Keats’ simple statement:

    ‘Beauty is truth, truth beauty,—that is all
    Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.’

    I have some faith, if not total confidence, that the Global warming scam, in spite of its monumental govermental and institutional support will eventually be exposed for the greatest of moral panic stories that it surely is, and that many clever people in many professions – not just the Viners and Erlichs of this world – will have much to explain for their support of it. The tradition of academic enquiry will survive this appalling corruption of its processes and the scientific process, like the poetry of Keats – a trained surgeon as well as a poet of course – will be seen as… both true and beautiful.

  43. WJb

    2011 will witness the birth of the ‘Mobile Marketing Consultant.’ This creature will advise companies on how best to brand themselves on smartphone platforms without really knowing how the phones work. It will be rewarded with large checks and be interviewed for countless front page articles.

  44. Jeff Norman

    2011 will be the last year before the year 2012 and nothing in 2011 will presage the events of 2012.

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