If you cite, enjoy, or create "research" or "studies", this post is a must. I've eschewed all math (given next time in The Wrong Way) and focused entirely on the…

We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…

This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

Laplace infamously calculated the probability, given his evidence, the sun would rise in the east tomorrow at (something like) 0.9999995. Many objected, saying it's much higher. Who was right? Laplace!…

The word to determine is ambiguous. It can mean ascertain or cause. The latter implies the former, but not vice versa. Knowing the full cause of things is our goal;…

This is it. We have reached our one true purpose: understanding cause. Cause is much richer than ordinarily thought in science. But it is everything. Today we begin one of…

There is nothing magical or mystical about simulations, and "randomness" has nothing to do with any of them. Let's remove the unrealistic thinking from simulations by understanding them for what…

This is on the philosophy (not mechanics) of the predictive limitations of so-called artificial intelligence models. AI is no different than other models in principle, being only statements which connect…