Posted inPhilosophy
Don’t Blame Me. I Don’t Have Free Will
Try this argument on for size: I am a smart, clever guy with an advanced degree in neurology and tenure. The brain is a biological machine. But I don't understand…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part II
I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What’s Wrong With Hypothesis Testing: Reader Question
I received this email from long-time reader Ivin Rhyne, which is so well put that I thought we should all see it (I'm quoting with permission): Matt, I just got…
Posted inStatistics
Manzi: What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know
This article is nothing but an extended link to a must-read piece in City Journal. Internet still once daily. Thanks to reader I. for suggesting this topic. If you haven't…
Posted inStatistics
Gladwell, Gottman, and Abraham on Predicting Divorce
Despite the best efforts of their wives, some married men remain recalcitrant and uncooperative. They refuse to or are incapable of taking their training seriously. Some of these men, who…
Posted inStatistics
Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II
Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Do Stricter Gun Laws Lead to More Crime? Brady Gun Law Scorecard & Murder Rates
The final installment of the Liberal Fascism review will appear tomorrow. I was inspired to write this after reading a Mike Adams column, in which he pointed to a Don…
Posted inFun Statistics
Results of Complete Prediction of 2009 NFL Season
Before the 2009 season began, I developed a very simple predictive1 model based solely on each NFL team's historical record. Here is what was said about the model: I used…