Posted inStatistics
Class 16: Binomial Sins!
My friends, as arcane as all this seems, we will need this in the Restoration. We need to restore Reality in all things, including Science. Link to all Classes. Video…
Posted inStatistics
Class 28: Randomization Redux (Randomization Does Nothing)
Jaynes's book (first part): https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/ Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Link to all Classes. Jaynes's book (first part): Video https://videopress.com/v/TOXMcJ2k?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube Twitter…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Why Attempts To Control Opinion Cause Opinion To Diverge
From Mars, John Carter reports in a wonderful essay discussing the Regime's attempts at manipulation says this: People don’t like being gaslit. The psychological techniques used by salesmen, con men,…
Posted inStatistics
Class 53: Laplace Was Right!
Laplace infamously calculated the probability, given his evidence, the sun would rise in the east tomorrow at (something like) 0.9999995. Many objected, saying it's much higher. Who was right? Laplace!…
Posted inStatistics
Class 43: The Causal Path
Apologies: I meant to have this run on Thursday, but a huge burst of snowy spring came through and knocked out power all yesterday morning. First: Almost all models are…
Posted inStatistics
I’m Going To Sue Scientists Who Gave Me Apoplexy Over Claims Of Climate Liability
The peer-reviewed paper is "Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability" by Christopher W Callahan and Justin S Mankin in Nature, a paper doubtless written using electricity provided…
Posted inStatistics
More On Monkeys Typing Shakespeare & Why Chance Isn’t Enough
Way back in 2010, I did the Infinite Monkeys theorem, which says an infinite number of monkeys unintelligently whacking away at typewriters would eventually reproduce Shakespeare. But there aren't an…
Posted inStatistics
Class 33: The Excesses & Errors Of Epidemiology II
Remember! Everybody can and should read Part I. Part II today requires the Class background. Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Video https://videopress.com/v/siBqnPxX?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube * Twitter -…
