Posted inCulture Statistics
Paddy Power’s Pope Predictions—Update
Update See below for main update. The odds of Father Dougal Maguire (Craggy Island) being the next Pope are 1,000 to 1. You may say this is small, but it's…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Correlation And Coincidence
A hastily written entry today, folks. Busy day. Typos at no extra charge. Reader Al Perrella invites us to Jerry Pournelle's Chaos Manner, where a note from our friend Mike…
Posted inStatistics
Bayesian Statistics Ruled Illegal?
Andrew Montford, who runs Bishop Hill blog, had a post titled "IPCC statistics ruled illegal" in which he said, "Bayesian statistics, the approach favoured by the IPCC in its assessments…
Posted inStatistics
EPA’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan
The EPA has asked for my advice.1 They will not listen to, or harken, or act on this advice, but asking for it gives them a sense that they have…
Posted inBook review Philosophy
Against Autonomy: Justifying Coercive Paternalism
Note: I do not own the book discussed below. I refuse to pay for it (it's $95!). If any well-off reader has a copy he would like to donate, then…
Posted inStatistics
Lightning May Cause Headaches, Moon May Cause Domestic Intranquility
I have discovered a statistically significant correlation between phases of the moon and domestic harmony. Every day for several months I filled out the Domestic Harmony Inventory (DHI), a scientifically…
Posted inFun Statistics
Updates: What’s Happening With Briggs? With the On-line Course? Etc.?
Homefront Things progress on the Briggs ranch---a patch of 900 square feet in the wilds of Upper Eastern Manhattan. They may shortly be progressing away from the island towards...where, nobody…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Statistics Is Not Math: Update To Allow New Comments
Update Hello newcomers. Posts usually close for comments after two weeks. But since this one is getting so many views, I moved it up to re-open comments. "Here is a…