Search Results for “probability” – Page 111

How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That

Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…

Statistics

Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?

It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…

Statistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…

Statistics

Lewandowsky’s Confusion About Statistics

Still at conference, so just a short plug for learning about which you speak. Stephan Lewandowsky, who believes JFK shot at the moon landings and that's why the globe has…

Statistics

The Future of Scientific Publications: Abandon Journals?

It took three years--or was it four?---for a paper I submitted to the august journal Annals of Statistics to wend its way through peer review. When it came back to…

Book review Philosophy

Caring Is Killing Us: What’s Wrong With Benevolence by David Stove

This review ran last August, but because of pressures of work and the relevance this important book has to our upcoming elections, it's time for another look. Regular posts resume…

Culture

The Most Curious Use Of ‘Only’ You Will Ever See

Let's begin with a disclaimer: Yours Truly is not a psychologist, nor does he have psychiatric training. Therefore his use of lunatic, insane git, mentally deficient in the highest degree,…

Book review Culture Philosophy Statistics

Reasoning To Belief: Feser’s The Last Superstition: A Refutation of the New Atheism — Part Last: Skulls Full Of Nothing

Don't Think Read Part I, Part II, Part III, Part Interlude, Part IV, Part V, Part VI. Part Last. Buy the book ($12.92 as of last glance). There is a…

Briggs on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026
Anon. I believe you'll find they are the same. I did a little shorthand by first taking the absolute value…
Anonymous on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026
Errata: your moneyline formula should have (x - 100) in the denominator for -x.
Dana on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
I was cured of buying lotto tickets about 40 years ago when a Brisbane newspaper published an article about gambling,…
John M on Register Your Predictions For 2026!January 12, 2026
1. Substack stops copying social media on their homepage and when they realize Substack is for people who want to…
Brian (bulaoren) on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
It's even worse; "Handicap" is now a forbidden term.