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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Data Is The Data, Not The Model: With Climatology Time Series Example

How not to plot The following plot was sent to me yesterday for comment. I cannot disclose the sender, nor the nature of the data, but neither of these are…
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Posted inStatistics

On-Line Statistics Course: Ideas And Your Opinions

We talked about this a couple of months ago, but now the time is nigh to build and create an on-line statistics course, or courses. There are several problems: content,…
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Posted inStatistics

The Final Polls & Predictions: What’s The Difference Between Polls And Models?

There are two ways to forecast the election: polls and models. Polls are easy: go out and ask who will vote for whom, tally the results, and print 'em. As…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That

Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…
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Posted inStatistics

Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?

It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…
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Posted inStatistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…
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Posted inStatistics

Lewandowsky’s Confusion About Statistics

Still at conference, so just a short plug for learning about which you speak. Stephan Lewandowsky, who believes JFK shot at the moon landings and that's why the globe has…
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Posted inStatistics

The Future of Scientific Publications: Abandon Journals?

It took three years--or was it four?---for a paper I submitted to the august journal Annals of Statistics to wend its way through peer review. When it came back to…
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  1. John Pate on Whoring For Climate ChangeSeptember 24, 2026

    Until we get back to burning heretics at the stake I don't see any solution to this kind of behaviour.

  2. John Pate on Lady Academics Tire Of Being Judged By Peer ReviewSeptember 24, 2026

    Private companies still run enormous R&D labs but they're funded by black budget "defence" appropriations doing the Devil's work. They…

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    Brosch and his ilk don't know squat about "scientific facts". They deal in pseudoscientific nonsense.

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    I refuse, on general principles, to use the Left's Newspeak. She is a whore, or prostitute if we're being polite.…

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