Search Results for “probability” – Page 120

Top 10 Sure Things: Which NFL Games Were The Easiest To Pick?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to see how extreme bookies would go in making NFL picks, as judged by the probabilities of home-team wins as derived from…

Fun Statistics

How To Find True Love: The Marriage Problem

MEB + ARK, a.k.a. the Haystack Hunters, wrote the following: As fans of your work in real life probability and breaking the law of averages, we were hoping you could…

Statistics

Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science

Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…

Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

hudbwu on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
So we're just not going to talk about the three shots?
Cary D Cotterman on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
No news source is perfect. Fox openly owns their conservative point of view. NPR lies about being unbiased. Even with…
Randy Middleton on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
I saw this exact quote posted in a blog post from someone else. Captain: What we've got here is... failure…
Tars Tarkas on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
"(I have in the queue a story on confirmation bias of academic Experts that confirms my bias that academic Experts…
Stan on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
Around 2013, I obtained all death certificate data from the state of California for the years 2000-2012. I posted on…