Search Results for “probability” – Page 120

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Philosophy Statistics

Contingency, Causality, Determinism, And Free Will

In thinking about what probability means, it's important to sort out what is contingent and what relationship contingent events have to causality. Contingency simply means that what is could have…

Statistics

Two New Papers vs. BEST: Guest Post by Lüdecke, Link, and Ewert

Horst Lüdecke is a Professor of Physiker in EIKE, European Institute for Climate and Energy, Heidelberg; Dr. Link is a physicist with EIKE; Prof. Dr. Friedrich-Karl Ewert is a geologist…

Statistics

BEST And The Wall Street Journal’s Numbers Guy

Carl Bialik, the Wall Street Journal's Numbers Guy, has two columns about BEST's temperature reconstruction model: "Global Temperatures: All Over the Map" and "A New Trove of Global Temperature Numbers").…

Fun Philosophy Statistics

Best Statistics Question Ever

Several readers have sent this one in1. One Raymond Johnson (or was it Ryan Grover?) said he found the following picture on this blackboard (I pulled my copy from Flowing…

Statistics

BEST’s Worst Work; What Is Significant?

You will have already seen this comparison graph from the Daily Mail. That paper points out correctly that the version of the plot provided by BEST is presented in such…

John Pate on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025
We know we don't understand consciousness let alone intelligence. IQ testing gets a bad rep though, it's a proxy for…
Cary D Cotterman on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025
I've observed seemingly vast differences in intelligence between singleton siblings raised in the same home (the gap from my wife…
NLR on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 15, 2025
I appreciate the researchers putting a table with the specific people and their scores. The 1937 book which the first…
hudbwu on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 12, 2025
I'll just point out that there is nothing in the Catholic doctrine that prohibits cannibalism. I was quite surprised when…
Johnno on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 11, 2025
The cemeteries??? The hospitals themselves will weigh you and cut you up and auction you off just like the first…