Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
All Of Statistics: Part II
(A) No new data (cont.) If we want to know how that data arose, and we are not satisfied by X itself, we need to propose a model---a fully causal…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
All Of Statistics: Part I
Statistics is the collection and modeling of data. By "modeling" I mean using probability to describe our uncertainty in values that data may take. Statistics, then, is applied probability. Probability…
Posted inStatistics
Statistics Of Loeb’s “Observed Changes In Top-Of-The-Atmosphere Radiation And Upper-Ocean Heating Consistent Within Uncertainty”
The paper is "Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty" by Norman Loeb and others in the journal Nature Geoscience. I'm pressed for time, so for…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Curtis’s The Science Of Subjectivity
An unfocused post today; just some notes on a paper. Busy day for me. Andrew Curtis wrote, "The science of subjectivity" in the January 2012 issue of the journal Geology…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What’s The Difference Between A Confidence Interval And A Credible Interval? Update
Twitter @ceptional reminded me of this post, which I had forgotten. Since it is highly relevant to The Great Bayesian Switch, I decided to repost. Some minor errors in grammar…
Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics
The Great Bayesian Switch
Update: See this post on the definition of confidence and credible intervals. Submitted for your approval, a new paper. A polemic describing in nascent terms the paradise that awaits us…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III
This inescapable fact, that the conditioning evidence is only assumed and is therefore subjectively defined, is responsible for much acrimony about accuracy. Thus the reason we attempt to eliminate wiggle…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II
Thanks to DAV for reminding me of a clarification. See yesterday's comments. This post is mostly bookkeeping. Tomorrow we do more examples. Sometimes, in contracts as in predictions, certain "unexpected…