Posted inStatistics
What’s The Probability Of A Nuclear War?
For readers in a hurry, here's the answer: There is no probability of a nuclear war. Nor of a conventional one. Nor even of you being victor in your next…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Ending The Tyranny Of Parameters!
Here it is! The one, the only, the peer-reviewed (and therefore true) "Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis" (the link is to the pdf, which is 11 MB;…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think
Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…
Posted inStatistics
The Probability Of Your Existence
A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was…
Posted inFun Statistics
The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare
This article, which originally appeared 20 May 2010, was inspired by reading Fredwin On Evolution, as wisely suggested by reader Bob Ludwick. At the bottom of Fred's piece, there appears…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Probability Of Abiogenesis? There Isn’t One
Remember before when we agreed nothing has a probability? Bully. So if no thing has a probability, neither does abiogenesis, since abiogenesis is a thing. Since abiogenesis is a thing…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Next Time Somebody Asks You “What’s the Probability of X” Say This — Crucial Update!
Next time somebody asks you "What's the Probability of X", where X is any proposition, say this: there is no such probability. It doesn't exist. "Briggs, what's the probability of…
Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics
Chapter 1 Excerpt from Uncertainty: The Soul of Probability, Modeling & Statistics
Buy the book! Necessary & Conditional Truth Given "x,y,z are natural numbers and x>y and y>z" the proposition "x>z" is true (I am assuming logical knowledge here, which I don't…