Search Results for “probability” – Page 6

When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?

Question from reader Richard Stevens: A professional scientist, holding an MS in one of the hard sciences, addressed the argument that the probability of creating a protein or an enzyme…

Statistics

What’s The Probability Of A Nuclear War?

For readers in a hurry, here's the answer: There is no probability of a nuclear war. Nor of a conventional one. Nor even of you being victor in your next…

Philosophy Statistics

Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Ending The Tyranny Of Parameters!

Here it is! The one, the only, the peer-reviewed (and therefore true) "Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis" (the link is to the pdf, which is 11 MB;…

Philosophy Statistics

Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…

Statistics

The Probability Of Your Existence

A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was…

Fun Statistics

The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare

This article, which originally appeared 20 May 2010, was inspired by reading Fredwin On Evolution, as wisely suggested by reader Bob Ludwick. At the bottom of Fred's piece, there appears…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Of Abiogenesis? There Isn’t One

Remember before when we agreed nothing has a probability? Bully. So if no thing has a probability, neither does abiogenesis, since abiogenesis is a thing. Since abiogenesis is a thing…

Philosophy Statistics

Next Time Somebody Asks You “What’s the Probability of X” Say This — Crucial Update!

Next time somebody asks you "What's the Probability of X", where X is any proposition, say this: there is no such probability. It doesn't exist. "Briggs, what's the probability of…

Jess on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Somewhere, I have my brother's bag of marbles. I sometimes think I should go through them to see if there…
Cary D Cotterman on Marbles!June 23, 2026
In the summer of 1960, in Fresno, California, I lost my promotional "KYNO Top-Dog Radio" boulder in a game of…
Brian (bulaoren) on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Briggs! Have you lost your marbles? (somebody had to say it) When I was a little kid, I was nuts…
NLR on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Interesting
Franco on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerJune 22, 2026
Probably my all time favorite has to be some variation of "War afflicts women and children most"