Search Results for “probability” – Page 6

When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?

Question from reader Richard Stevens: A professional scientist, holding an MS in one of the hard sciences, addressed the argument that the probability of creating a protein or an enzyme…

Statistics

What’s The Probability Of A Nuclear War?

For readers in a hurry, here's the answer: There is no probability of a nuclear war. Nor of a conventional one. Nor even of you being victor in your next…

Philosophy Statistics

Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Ending The Tyranny Of Parameters!

Here it is! The one, the only, the peer-reviewed (and therefore true) "Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis" (the link is to the pdf, which is 11 MB;…

Philosophy Statistics

Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…

Statistics

The Probability Of Your Existence

A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was…

Fun Statistics

The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare

This article, which originally appeared 20 May 2010, was inspired by reading Fredwin On Evolution, as wisely suggested by reader Bob Ludwick. At the bottom of Fred's piece, there appears…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Of Abiogenesis? There Isn’t One

Remember before when we agreed nothing has a probability? Bully. So if no thing has a probability, neither does abiogenesis, since abiogenesis is a thing. Since abiogenesis is a thing…

Philosophy Statistics

Next Time Somebody Asks You “What’s the Probability of X” Say This — Crucial Update!

Next time somebody asks you "What's the Probability of X", where X is any proposition, say this: there is no such probability. It doesn't exist. "Briggs, what's the probability of…

Cary Cotterman on Ugly Women Rulers Condemn LookismAugust 3, 2026
Huh? Is this a joke, or what? As an ugly old dude who was only ever marginally attractive at all,…
Johnno on Ugly Women Rulers Condemn LookismAugust 3, 2026
If dating trends are anything to go by, the men are no longer looking... Imagination will suffice until the end…
Brian (bulaoren) on Ugly Women Rulers Condemn LookismAugust 3, 2026
Today is not April 1st (I checked). Physically unattractive women are not highly coveted on the mating market. Might that…
Philip Rogan on Ugly Women Rulers Condemn LookismAugust 3, 2026
Ugh, that put me off my lunch.
Aa on Death By Organ DonationAugust 2, 2026
I'm Doctor. I don't trust Doctors at all.