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Low-Hanging Molecules Have Already Been Picked—Most New Drugs Provide No Benefit
Posted inStatistics

Low-Hanging Molecules Have Already Been Picked—Most New Drugs Provide No Benefit

Remember the old stock scam? Call up 1,000 people and tell half Stock A will rise, and tell the other half it will fall. Five hundred people will be slightly…
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Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty
Posted inClass Statistics

Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty

Let's drag the statistician's hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we…
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Paper Says Some Psychiatric Diagnoses “Scientifically Meaningless”
Posted inStatistics

Paper Says Some Psychiatric Diagnoses “Scientifically Meaningless”

The title is an understatement: Heterogeneity in psychiatric diagnostic classification. This is a paper in Psychiatry Research by Kate Allsopp, John Read, Rhiannon Corcoran, and Peter Kinderman. Abstract (to which…
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Yes, There Is A Hot Hand In Basketball
Posted inStatistics

Yes, There Is A Hot Hand In Basketball

On the Second of March in the Year of Our Lord One Thousand Nine Hundred Sixty-Two, well before the sport became another venue for pencil-necked political correctness, a basketball player…
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The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes
Posted inClass Statistics

The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes

The WSJ on 27 June 2019 published an essay by William Poundstone on the hoary Doomsday Argument. Many are fooled by this equation, which contains a fundamental, even glaring, flaw.…
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The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism
Posted inStatistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…
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When Testing Parameters Might Make Sense
Posted inClass Statistics

When Testing Parameters Might Make Sense

This example is derived from ongoing conversations with a colleague, and portions of this post (mathematified) might show up in a paper. The genesis of this example is from Ron…
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An Infinity of Null Hypotheses — Another Anti-P-Value Argument
Posted inStatistics

An Infinity of Null Hypotheses — Another Anti-P-Value Argument

This is extracted from this set of papers, which should be read in full. An ordinary regression model is written      mu = beta_0x_1 + ... + beta_0x_p, where mu…
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  1. Johnno on Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital TwinsFebruary 1, 2026

    So instead of any actual fieldwork and gathering physical materials and samples, will the scientists now be using digital replicas…

  2. Robert Berger on Physics & Vertical Causation: The End of Quantum Reality by Wolfgang Smith ReviewedFebruary 1, 2026

    Thel Physics comments miss the entire metaphysical point ! (for the most part) We are now getting back to essence.…

  3. Robert Berger on Wolfgang Smith’s Vision Of Oneness — Guest Post by Ianto WattFebruary 1, 2026

    Whatever failures there are in the human writings and thought of Wolfgang Smith, he is the best mind on Physics…

  4. Paul Fischer on Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time SeriesJanuary 30, 2026

    Great lecture, William. Took a year of time series in grad school...all math, zero discussion of how fragile “trends” really…

  5. Martin on Fatima, Russia & You, Part IV — Guest Post by Ianto WattJanuary 30, 2026

    Brilliant. Thank you.

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