We are finally at the most crucial part of the modeling process: proving if the damned thing works. Not "works" in the sense that we get good unobservable parameter estimates,…

We discussed this before, but since it has come up recently in personal discussions, I wanted to offer this clarification. Suppose we're in a standard epidemiological situation, or even a…

For even more edification, read this article in German: Denken Sie an eine Zahl zwischen 1 und 10. I'm picking a number between 1-10. What is the probability of you…

Here is a link to the PDF. Briggs, William M., 2019. Everything Wrong with P-Values Under One Roof. In Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics, V Kreinovich, NN Thach, ND…

We're going to soon talk more about "IQ" and "intelligence". I'm working on a more in-depth article on the subject to carefully explicate the vast over-certainties I see on "both…

In honor of Monty Hall, who passed away this past weekend (in October 2017), this classic article (which ran long ago, the date lost due to the hacking, solving his…