Posted inClass Statistics
Making Random Draws Is Nuts
Let's do a little science experiment together. Go into the closet and pull out an opaque sack or bag. Anything will do, even a large sock. If you can fit…
Posted inClass Statistics
There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either
I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is "no prior". Bayesians might not agree, but it's true. Mayo's right.…
Posted inStatistics
The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again: Premature Birth Rate Edition
Hypothesis testing leads to more scientific nonsense than any other practice, including fraud. Hypothesis testing, as regular readers know, cannot identify cause. It conflates decision with probability and leads to…
Posted inClass Statistics
Lovely Example of Statistics Gone Bad
The graph above (biggified version here) was touted by Simon Kuestenmacher (who posts many beautiful maps). He said "This plot shows the objects that were found to be 'the most…
Posted inFun Statistics
Other Practical Books On Par With Uncertainty? Reader Question
Got this email from VD. I've edited to remove any personal information and to add blog-standard style and links. I answered, and I remind all readers of the on-going claassre,…
Posted inStatistics
Manipulating the Alpha Level Cannot Cure Significance Testing
Nothing can cure significance testing. Except a bullet to the p-value. (That sound you heard was from readers pretending to swoon.) The paper is out and official---and free!: "Manipulating the…
Posted inClass Statistics
Choose Predictive Over Parametric Every Time
Gaze and wonder at picture which heads this article, which I lifted from John Haman's nifty R package ciTools. The numbers in the plot are made up whole cloth to…
Posted inBook review Philosophy
The Why & Frequency Of Miracles: Shapiro’s The Miracle Myth Reviewed — Part IV
Read Part I, II, III. MOTIVE That miracles have supernatural origins is true by definition (see below, in PROBABILITY). Miracles, like all events, must have causes, and cause has motive…