Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Quantum Potency & Probability
A note on a complex subject. Ed Feser points us to the paper "An Aristotelian Approach to Quantum Mechanics" by Gil Sanders, and in turn Sanders points us to "Taking…
Posted inBook review Statistics
Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts
This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we're 1.5 years out, it's time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again…
Posted inStatistics
What People Think Probability Words Mean
The graph above came from Github and was the result of a poll of folks on Reddit. "The raw data came from /r/samplesize responses to the following question: What [probability/number]…
Posted inClass Statistics
Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part XI
Review! We left off with comparing the standard, out-of-the-box linear regression with our multinomial predictive observable model. The great weaknesses of the regression were probability leakage (giving positive probability to…
Posted inClass Statistics
Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part X
Review! Last time we created four models of CGPA. Which is correct? They all are. Why? I should ask as a homework question, but I'll remind us here. Since all…
Posted inClass Statistics
Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part IX
Review! Last time we successfully computed our model (8): (8) Pr(CGPA = i | guesses of new measures, grading rules, old obs, model), where i = 0,...,5. The model…
Posted inClass Statistics
What Is The Probability Of COVFEFE?
From a tweet from Taleb, who informs us the following question is part of the Indian Statistical Institute examination. (5) Mr.Trump decides to post a random message on Facebook and…
Posted inStatistics
Predictive Probability Resources, Why Frequentism Fails & Uncertainty
From the mailbag, reader I.W. writes: Dear Professor, I represent social science (but of a priori bent), and I recently got really hooked on frequentialism. After all, prof. Mises employed…