Search Results for “probability” – Page 7

Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts

This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we're 1.5 years out, it's time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again…

Statistics

What People Think Probability Words Mean

The graph above came from Github and was the result of a poll of folks on Reddit. "The raw data came from /r/samplesize responses to the following question: What [probability/number]…

Class Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part XI

Review! We left off with comparing the standard, out-of-the-box linear regression with our multinomial predictive observable model. The great weaknesses of the regression were probability leakage (giving positive probability to…

Class Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part X

Review! Last time we created four models of CGPA. Which is correct? They all are. Why? I should ask as a homework question, but I'll remind us here. Since all…

Class Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part IX

Review! Last time we successfully computed our model (8): (8) Pr(CGPA = i | guesses of new measures, grading rules, old obs, model), where i = 0,...,5. The model…

Class Statistics

What Is The Probability Of COVFEFE?

From a tweet from Taleb, who informs us the following question is part of the Indian Statistical Institute examination. (5) Mr.Trump decides to post a random message on Facebook and…

Statistics

Predictive Probability Resources, Why Frequentism Fails & Uncertainty

From the mailbag, reader I.W. writes: Dear Professor, I represent social science (but of a priori bent), and I recently got really hooked on frequentialism. After all, prof. Mises employed…

Statistics

How To Resolve All Probability Paradoxes: Apples In Sack Example

Via Alexander Bogomolny?: At 1 minute to midnight 10 apples fall into a sack. The same happens at half a minute to midnight, then at a quarter minute to midnight,…

Stosh from the Sticks on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025
In my (moderately) humble opinion, much of difficulty in dealing with this "transgender" phenomenon is caused by folks conflating a…
C-Marie on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025
"...being born wrong” Has anyone asked what being born has to do with one's sexuality??? "A zygote forms when sperm…
Cary Cotterman on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025
Jeff, I used to listen to Dennis Prager quite a bit, and I've heard him condemn pornography at length several…
Cary Cotterman on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025
As far back as I can remember, to around late toddlerhood, I was always drawn to girls, even long before…
JerryR on At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?October 21, 2025
I have a question: what does it mean to be conservative? I always considered conservative to be truth. So what…