Search Results for “probability” – Page 91

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Philosophy Statistics

Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”

What's the difference between "independence" and "irrelevance" and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely…

Statistics

That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…

Statistics

Do Sunspots Shorten Lives By 5.2 years?

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. I have no idea what the answer to that question is. And I doubt…

Statistics

Naomi Oreskes Plays Dumb On Statistics And Climate Change

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Remember how I said, again and again---and again---that everybody gets statistics wrong? Here's proof…

gareth on The Triumph Of The FeminineOctober 24, 2025
Love the picture. Wrong in several ways, but only those with the competence that this lady lacks would notice. I…
At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value? – William M. Briggs on Supreme Court Rules Civil Rights Act Applies To Gender Theory, Sexual “Orientation”October 23, 2025
[…] to “sexual orientation”. That “right” was teased out in 2020 by Neil Gorsuch, who is labeled a conservative. (The…
brad.tittle on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayOctober 23, 2025
I pull together a bunch of components from primary arms. I put a sight on top. I go to the…
Uncle Mike on The Triumph Of The FeminineOctober 22, 2025
I've always been appalled by the Lesbians for Abortion lobby. These "gals" don't produce babies (biological truth, Ketanji). So none…
Milton Hathaway on The Triumph Of The FeminineOctober 22, 2025
I felt an intense stab of searing phantom pain at first sight of the cover photo. I've heard that women…