That peer-reviewed Colin Kelley et al. paper "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought", which the traddy media is portraying like Wired did---e.g. How…

Well, it banned all p-values, wee or not. And confidence intervals! The journal of Basic and Applied Social Psychology, that is. Specifically, they axed the "null hypothesis significance testing procedure".…

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…