Search Results for “probability” – Page 98

Journal Bans Wee P-values—And Confidence Intervals! Break Out The Champagne!

Well, it banned all p-values, wee or not. And confidence intervals! The journal of Basic and Applied Social Psychology, that is. Specifically, they axed the "null hypothesis significance testing procedure".…

Fun

Coming Clean On My Global Warming Funding

Since the "Why models run hot" flap started a witch hunt in Congress, I thought I'd give the complete story of my funding for any work of any kind done…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Philosophy Statistics

Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”

What's the difference between "independence" and "irrelevance" and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely…

Statistics

That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…

Cary Cotterman on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
More than seventy years of experience with dog ownership has made the fact clear to me that dogs squat pointing…
Uncle Mike on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
The afterstory: three of the authors are now university presidents, and one is head of NSA.
shawn marshall on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
for sure you have identified a scienterrific study full of dog poop
Brian (bulaoren) on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
Well, a lot of current research product orients toward the left.
McChuck on Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earth’s Magnetic Field?September 3, 2026
Perhaps the dogs prefer not to stare into the morning and evening sun? How does one measure the "calmness" of…