Posted inCulture
I Made “Climate Denial MVP”!
Gollum (who's he? see this post on the political witch hunt of scientists) wrote yesterday to announce that a group of us made the "Climate Denial MVP" List. I admit…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept
https://twitter.com/Bigdatanalysis/status/573739862924353536 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by "springing forward", we continue our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles next week. If you can't read the tweet above, it says…
Posted inStatistics
Der Spiegel Asks About Global-Warming-Causes-Syrian-Civil-War Paper
That peer-reviewed Colin Kelley et al. paper "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought", which the traddy media is portraying like Wired did---e.g. How…
Posted inStatistics
Journal Bans Wee P-values—And Confidence Intervals! Break Out The Champagne!
Well, it banned all p-values, wee or not. And confidence intervals! The journal of Basic and Applied Social Psychology, that is. Specifically, they axed the "null hypothesis significance testing procedure".…
Posted inFun
Coming Clean On My Global Warming Funding
Since the "Why models run hot" flap started a witch hunt in Congress, I thought I'd give the complete story of my funding for any work of any kind done…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III
Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I
Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…