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How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty
Posted inStatistics

How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty

It's easy to sound more certain than the evidence warrants, especially when using classical parameter-based statistical methods. I'll show you how. I'll give you the procedure first, then work through…
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The Official Regime Coronadoom Narrative Has Taken A Series Of Vicious Body Blows
Posted inStatistics

The Official Regime Coronadoom Narrative Has Taken A Series Of Vicious Body Blows

Been a busy week or two for the regime. They're having an increasingly difficult time holding back Reality from leaking into the coronadoom narrative. Not everywhere, of course. Austria is…
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Why You Shouldn’t Trust Epidemiologists: Natural Gas & Elderly Deaths Edition
Posted inStatistics

Why You Shouldn’t Trust Epidemiologists: Natural Gas & Elderly Deaths Edition

I'm always on about Experts, which are credentialed trained individuals who support the regime, so I thought it well to show Experts in action. One way is through the use…
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Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed
Posted inStatistics

Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed

The answer is yes. Or, if you prefer, no. It depends. Here's a long query about the subject from friend-of-the-blog Kevin Gray. Over the years many have disagreed about many…
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CDC Data: Up To 90% Or More Of Americans Already Infected
Posted inStatistics

CDC Data: Up To 90% Or More Of Americans Already Infected

Seen this? That's the number of daily infections reported to the CDC -- which they mistakenly call "cases", but let that pass. The bump up is, as you've heard, caused…
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More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics

Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any---I said any---dataset x. And all it takes is one---I said…
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The New CDC Masks Mandate Study Is Not Good
Posted inStatistics

The New CDC Masks Mandate Study Is Not Good

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1442965194150457344 How would you check if mask mandates worked in schools? I can think of only one way. Contrast kids in schools with mandates and in those without. Get them…
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Why Experts Hate Racial Differences In Intelligence
Posted inStatistics

Why Experts Hate Racial Differences In Intelligence

Steve Sailer highlights an interesting new paper on "cognitive ability" and genetic ancestry (which, in an effort to forestall criticism, perhaps, Sailer calls a "scientific paper"). It's "Linear and partially…
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  1. tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026

    Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.

  2. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  3. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  4. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  5. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

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