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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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Posted inStatistics

Trend Models & The Inability To Discover Cause

The plot atop this post is one of an observable, the cause of which is known to be related to a variety of physical, chemical, biological, geographical, and even sociological…
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Posted inStatistics

Real Versus Statistical Control

The ideal experiment is one in which control is exerted over all aspects of an environment. We desire to measure an outcome; for ease suppose this is a simple number.…
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Posted inStatistics

The Alternative To Null Hypothesis Significance Testing

This article jumps right in with continuous-valued probability models, which are explained in Uncertainty, as is the subject of this article in great detail. This article is only a rough…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: No, a Study Did Not Show That Same-Sex “Marriage” Laws Reduce Teen Suicide Rates

Folks, a ripe entry for the Fourth Annual WMBriggs.com Bad Science Award (and what about the Third Annual? It's coming, it's coming...). No, a Study Did Not Show That Same-Sex…
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Posted inStatistics

Pope Francis Induces Warm Thoughts Of Global Warming

It's official. Science has donned the leather jacket, slipped on a pair of becoming Bermuda shorts, strapped on a pair of water skies, and soared into the air over the…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: Who’s Better At Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls?

Stream: Who's Better At Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls? The NBC News story "Female Doctors Outperform Male Doctors, According to Study" makes these bold claims. Patients treated by women are…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Vatican Analyzes The Difference Between Humans And Robots

Soon a robot will ask you if you want fries with that. Computer screens already do, in some locales. How does that make you feel? Hungry? That could be taken…
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Posted inStatistics

Scientific People Understand Reality Less, New Research Didn’t Study

Headline: Religious people understand the world less, study suggests, which derives from the peer-reviewed paper "Does Poor Understanding of Physical World Predict Religious and Paranormal Beliefs?" in Applied Cognitive Psychology…
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  1. Briggs on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Anon. I believe you'll find they are the same. I did a little shorthand by first taking the absolute value…

  2. Anonymous on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Errata: your moneyline formula should have (x - 100) in the denominator for -x.

  3. Dana on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026

    I was cured of buying lotto tickets about 40 years ago when a Brisbane newspaper published an article about gambling,…

  4. John M on Register Your Predictions For 2026!January 12, 2026

    1. Substack stops copying social media on their homepage and when they realize Substack is for people who want to…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026

    It's even worse; "Handicap" is now a forbidden term.

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