Search Results for “regression” – Page 21

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

Real Climate Temperature “Trend” Article Gets It Wrong (Like So Many Do)

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…

Statistics

Please Don’t Smooth Your (Social Media) Data!

Don't Don't smooth your data and then use that smoothed data as input to other analysis. You will fool yourself. You will make over-confident decisions. It is the wrong thing…

Philosophy Statistics

Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept

https://twitter.com/Bigdatanalysis/status/573739862924353536 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by "springing forward", we continue our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles next week. If you can't read the tweet above, it says…

Statistics

Natural Variations In Weather DO NOT Explain The ‘Pause’: Update, With Letter to Nature

You create a model which predicts the sun will rise in the west. The sun fails to cooperate and rises in the east. Do you: Admit failure and return your…

Statistics

Nonpolitical Images Evoke Neural Predictors Of Political Ideology?

The study Another day, another dreary study purporting to show that the brains of "conservatives" are different than those of "liberals." This one hooked up to an electrical phrenology device…

Philosophy Statistics

Explanation Vs Prediction

Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…

Paul Murphy on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
hey doc Steven Hayward's substack post on "Pope Bob" https://stevehayward.substack.com/p/pope-bob includes an image and summary of a book on "evaluative…
JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
Probability is defined on a sigma field. But what exactly is a sigma field? In simpler terms, it represents the…
Johnno on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 9, 2025
What are the political leanings of the naturally elotrocuted, and can we use them for our cause, or does their…
Paul Fischer on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
Always thought-provoking, William. The comments section’s a bit hostile today. To really grasp what Matt is driving at, you have…
Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…